As an ex-Sucker (hopefully), I bought heavily into this sector in 1995. I believe this was (or we can debate) THE MARKET TOP of the last cycle.
I would like this thread to discuss the tell-tale signs of a top.
Things I remember:
1. A new Fab was being announced everyday, and ground was soon broken there after (MU). Please post any Fab announcement here. Let's measures this.
2. Analyst were saying the cycle in the industry will flatten out because semiconductor are now in x% and growing of all electronic products.
3. Analyst were tripping over themselves to upgrade. Funds over owned the sector. They own 87 percent of the stock in companies like LRCX.
4. The Industry was predicting $300 Billion is sales for the year 2000. I think it was ~$130 in 1995 and is now what $150? Slighty off on that prediction.
5. Companies had to wait 18 months for lithography tools.
Experts please add to this!
We can make just as much money on the way down as we have on the way up.
MH |
