Hi mishedlo, I like to believe ...
(a) I am not an alarmist, but a 'thunker' hoping to keep financial balance and momentum
(b) I paint some scenarios to keep myself alert to the fact that I must not be overly confident on what the media says
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(c) I constantly remind myself that I lack imagination, and that others do help with the picture
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(d) While demand will weaken, supply may dry up altogether, in fits and starts, making all the middlemen needing to charge more, due to genuine source supply issues or rise in cost of shipping
(e) Perversely, air travel cost may increase, and as CB noted, telecom capacity may go into full utilization
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(f) Anything can happen from here on out, and if it is strange enough, it has a better chance of being believed to happen
(g) One ship going down in the Hormuz will see oil zip pronto upward by, what, USD 5/barrel? Another fallen royal house will see price zip to, what else, USD 10/barrel?
(h) While this is not a scenario to bet on happening, but neither is it one to bet against.
Chugs, Jay |
