Hello AC Flyer, this is a response to your message ...
Message 16228564
and yes, I agree with you about what they say about opinions.
I joined SI in January of 1999, making Softbank my home-thread but just like my current home-thread 2001 Collapse, we talked about many issues and other stocks. My track record on investment, hedging, speculation, and gambling is so far lucky.
Now, more specific to your direct query <<Provide a link to one of your posts dated prior to 12/31/99 stating a similar opinion regarding Alan Greenspan>> I am at a loss only in so far that I only made two mentions of Greenspan, in a neutral to slightly denigrating stance, prior to when he so clearly went off the deep end. Had you phrased the query <<Provide a link … prior to 12/31/99 … stating a doubt regarding the stock market bubble that Greenspan is responsible for>>, I can do that more readily.
Anyway, my two relevant dated mention of Greenspan was …
Message 11621706
QUOTE (October 17th, 1999)
Mr. Greenspan seems to be chatting down the market in the US to save us from sudden and implosive grief ... I remain optismistic for continued runup in top class i-net (last boys standing) shares between now and Christmas/New Years (Y2K or no Y2K), but caution seems to be in order for time beyond late January.
UNQUOTE
Message 12423716
QUOTE (December 30th, 1999)
Attached find news clipping from Bloomberg, following up my earlier post on hedge funds wading into technology. Not bad that Soros turned a year-on-year loss to a 30+% gain in 60 days.
We in Asia had a run-in with Soros and friends, and the ASian crisis had very little to do with non-transparency, cronyism, or lack of democracy. The storm was caused by high hard currency denominated leverage, speculation, and triggered by Soros and friends doing a hedge job on the over-valued (fixed to US$) currencies. Had you been an Indonesian billionaire, had all your assets in Indonesia, in local currency, you would have been worth no more than US$ 2 million (yes, two million) at the low point. Sort of a life style changing event in my judgement.
Hong Kong was lucky, in that we followed Malaysia's lead (turn off the light during a bar brawl and gang up on the foreigners) did not follow the Wall Street Journal rule book, defended ourselves, and taught Soros humility with a one day US$ 10 billion government intervention, and then the Russians immediately followed up with a lesson on prudence on foreign lending, and the Japanese then reminded Soros who the capital supplier to the US was. Longterm Capital nearly folds, Greenspan and Ruben panics, turns on the liquidity tap, and the rest of the story we know.
Watch out below when these famous people and the 'IPO lock-up period' expired i-net insiders starts selling, and worse, starts shorting. Asia, more particularly Japan, is a good place to ride out the storm due to its
(1) 10+ year recession/depression,
(2) high savings,
(3) megascale government sponsored liquidity,
(4) early i-net days, and
(5) low stock ownership rate.
…
My guess for 2000 is that Soros will be testifying in the Senate in 2001.
UNQUOTE
And my doubts concerning the Greenspan voodoo that so many then believe so fervently …
Message 11402103
QUOTE (September 29th, 1999)
Good things, gold and internet, both looking to the future of hyper inflation and irresponsible govt and private spending. Gold hedges against inflation, i-net cuts costs from real space based operations. i-net companies with cash from equity offering will win, real companies with cash from bond market will lose. I-net companies with no cash will disappear.
UNQUOTE
… and my own plan countering the magic …
Message 11919728
QUOTE (September 29th, 1999)
My operating assumptions and responses going forward are:
(a) volatility for the prime assets, trending up to BUBBLE proportions (valuation always over-shoot, in both directions) - hold longterm stake and trade options, be prepared to buy back at higher prices and sell at lower prices, then make 180 degree turns;
(b) spillover of mania to other asset classes - hegde with gold via selling of puts;
(c) genuine growth for top techno companies in IT infrastructure and content/commerce pure plays - buy and only play with quality;
(d) tears for the rest - stay away from Amazon and any B2C except Yahoo; and
(e) Continuing shift of bubble to other financial centers (Japan/Europe and Hong Kong) - follow the liquidity bubble. Trust the Force.
With Nasdaq Japan and Europe and 9984 acumen, I would be watching for the development of a US i-net play listing in Japan Nasdaq and Euro-Nasdaq via E*trade IPO machine before listing in US Nasdaq, as companies in global businesses (all i-net plays should be global plays) should list not in home market but in market with highest bidding P/E ratio. After this development, it would then be time for some of us chicken at heart (count me in this group) to take the ball home and have dinner at pool side to music of the Mighty Sparrow.
I sound positively positive about year 2000, even to myself and that scares me somewhat. Sitting on 9984 and looking down is much like landing at the old HK airport and staring at what's for dinner and on TV in passing apartment windows.
Finally, no debt!!!
UNQUOTE
… and never forgetting the true reason of success (luck)
Message 12044488
QUOTE (November 22, 1999)
A realistic assessment of recent success would be that information business, by coincidence, constitutes the majority of my workday focus now. I suspect much of my recent successes has to do with being in the right sector and being in the best companies of that sector. Fact is most companies are not nearly as up as the ones popular on SI boards. So, I guess it is fortunate that the Yahoo!s of this world does the up/down/up as opposed to up/up/up. I suspect, for example, that a real metals expert can make money in down as well as up metal markets, something I am not sure I can do in the information market.
UNQUOTE
… and always remembering to be afraid, to believe that it is not my destiny to be rich
Message 12190224
QUOTE (December 4th, 1999)
I count myself as extremely bullish in the intermediate term, cautious in the short term and terrified in the longterm. Simply a question of running the gauntlet for the closing door to Maui. It is those pattering of feet that I am trying to stay ahead of. The game is played to be won sometimes and to be not lost some other times.
UNQUOTE
… I was positioned thus on December 4th, 1999
Message 12189698
QUOTE (December 4th, 1999)
The only six shares I have not trimmed down or committed to covered calls are MSFT (too cheap in relation to i-net shares), VSIO (play on MSFT), adding to RTRSY (new corporate direction presumably coming), buying MO (crazy bet against the government, and no, I do not smoke), holding SNE (ordered my PlayStation II for HK release, demo amazing) and MBK.
UNQUOTE
… but remembering to ‘apologize’ to the true bulls for edging to the exit …
Message 12255082
QUOTE (December 10th, 1999)
Hi Edwin-san (some folks corrected me on my previous spelling of san), I was wondering when you were going to (and where is Mact) say something about my repeating the mistake of selling sftbf (though in exceedingly limited quantity, as it will probably be a mistake even selling 20%). Malcolm is spot on the psychology: win-win and no panic when tested on any slide. Additionally, game theory logic rules that I ought to put myself in a position where I can afford to be wrong while other players are betting the shop. The game must be played to be not lost.
…
Nope, I am still on the dance floor and the music is loud. I am just a bit closer to the fire exit, beyond which my metaphoric Audi TT is parked with engine revving.
You are right about the fun discussion though, and I am prepared to be wrong about this one.
UNQUOTE
… always keep an eye on the big boys …
Message 12257581
QUOTE (December 11th, 1999)
Verify for yourselves, but the talk is that Soros' hedge fund was down 6% for the year at the start of November; a drastic allocation move to TECHNOLOGY between then and now results in a +20% gain for the year. Performance for year now in hand, and what will Soros and his 'follow the leader' crowd do next? Allocation into gold? Bring down capitalism? Nope, this latest rise may be for the big boys only.
UNQUOTE
… and act accordingly
Message 12266003
QUOTE (December 12th, 1999)
My actions are dictated purely by my twin needs of safety and action. I need to keep >50% in cash/bonds as I need safety, and I need to trade else I am not fully enjoying the game (I keep using this word as I live it). Remember, I thrived during the Asian financial meltdown by (1) quick footed dancing between markets as they tanked and bopped, (2) ability to take risks when others were not in a position to, and finally (3) ability to call on leverage when leverage were generally not available.
UNQUOTE
… never mistake bubble for genius
Message 12355669
QUOTE (December 22, 1999)
Excuse my random mutterings, as we are partying in the office at 1:15pm. Just released bonus packs to staff. I still remember quite vividly my champaign and caviar boat trip right before Thailand collapsed.
…
There are simply money everywhere for the picking, and we are drunk with fantastic visions of Maui. The operative valuation out here appears to be US$ 5 million for a good idea, and projects are valued at $15 million for having three good ideas. Food processing portal. Textile portal. Hotel portal. Traditional Chinese Medicine Portal. Etc. Old intermediaries I know in energy projects are now pawning i-net ideas.
Cornfeld's (1960s scamster) street level window in HK (where he displayed a tree with money clipped to it - the money tree) on Duddell Street in Central now has a new logo inside "Web Bank". Cornfeld's motto tag line used to be "Do you truly want to be rich?"
This is tremendously enjoyable and funnier than "It's a mad mad mad world".
Today I received a querry on a i-net business plan. The guy asked "Jay, the writing style looks like yours on the B-plan; is this the deal you guys sold to _____". He was concerned that a business was being re-packaged and sold again. As I was suppose to vet projects for him, he thought one of my plans had found its way back to me. Turns out to be a competing idea in traditional chinese medicine, not as good, but looks similar.
Care to be exercised. Survivors will be the quick-footed.
While the emperor's palace was valued at an unsaleable fortune, there are still plenty of Hawaiian hotels boarded up. Conclusion, stay with the quality issues.
I am worried about a Bre-X type of situation in i-net (as if some one sneazes on the buffet table of Gold Mining) that ruins the fun for the rest of us.
Back to the party.
UNQUOTE
… and say the unmentionable (nope, never shorted anything other than selling calls)
Message 12403144
QUOTE (December 28th, 1999)
No rationale, logic, valuation. Just speculation in its purest and most daring form. A sand castle built on a deck of cards, supported by a shimmering mirage of riches that can be.
… IPO opportunity, in case the liquidity train does not manage to cross the bridge of Credibility and crashes into the South Sea.
UNQUOTE
… and
Message 12402354
QUOTE (December 28th, 1999)
I have now only a few meaningful and unencumbered positions (9984, SNE, MSFT/VSIO, CHL, INTC, RTRSY, CMCSK, HSBC, MBK, a ML i-net fund that plays the IPOs and has large position in 9984 - and these constitute my 'investments' as opposed to 'speculation'), one encumbered but meaningful position in AMGN, one still meaningful speculation (Founder) and a bunch of meaningless subscriptions to annual reports (YHOO, SFE, AOL, EMC, CSCO, LU ...), plus a middling hedge in NEM longs and puts. Of the above, 9984 accounts for 45-50% of total value, depending on what time of day it is in Tokyo. Yup, I believe.
I feel like a person who had overendulged in sex; I have, as they say, shot my bullets, and now only got the thermonuclear bombs, which are not particularly or typically useful in trading battles.
My 'gamble' is my current high allocation to that burdensome and low yielding asset category called cash and near-cash.
What scares me is that I am actually considering going short, not as in buying put, but in selling naked calls and selling shares I do not own. Never did before, always a first time.
UNQUOTE
… and
Message 12404275
QUOTE (December 29th, 1999)
Conservatism, me, one who even dares to contemplate shorting this crazy market. Edwin-san, you are, however, correct in detecting my overall bearish bias and reluctant bullishness on my thermonuclear bombs.
January does not concern me much, March does. We all become technicians first, science fiction writers later, soothsayers next, then, finally, astrologers. February is a month to start shorting until we feel margin poor, and August is for going long until we feel cash poor.
UNQUOTE
… leading up to the cutoff date you prescribed …
Message 12424137
QUOTE (December 30th, 1999)
Yesterday, the taxi driver did ask for and accept stock tips from me. Earlier, my 70 year old mom visiting now tried to understand from me what EMC's business was (she does e-mail and surf for info), and my father in-law (who does not use i-net) had bought and mis-sold MYPT, in at 13, out at 25, leaving US$ 500k+ on the table, and he still could not tell me what the company does, nor could he tell me what the closing price is. My office administrator is following my trades, my broker is passing around my trades as his own ideas (ever since my initial lucky (nay, studied) 9984 buy in November of 1998). My neighbor and I talked Golden Power while putting out the garbage, speculated on a joint purchase of the apartment on the third floor of our 3 storey building, and discussed his Malaysian friends wanting to place money with him to speculate with in Hong Kong (free capital movement is so very important to the continued prosperity of our little island). And finally, other asset classes are being talked about in the press as follow-ons to i-net frenzy (recent spat of biotech buzz, etc), and this is inevitable as the maniac fever runs its course, affecting other assets.
I am on page 69 of "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor (purchaseable at Amazon, of course), and at the bottom of the page, from the year 1720, by an anonymous pamphleteer, in great clarity ...
"The additional rise of this stock above the true capital will be only imaginary; one added to one, by any rules of vulgar arithmetic, will never make three and half; consequently, all the fictitious value must be a loss to some persons or other, first or last. The only way to prevent it to oneself must be to sell out betimes, and so let the Devil take the hindmost."
The earlier part of the book described speculative events since the Roman empire days, and I observe that if one were to replace the nouns (i-net for gold, biotech for tulips, diving engines for cellular phone, treasure in South Seas for WTO in China, etc) and change the dates (1999 for 1720, etc), the resulting words can be published in Wall Street Journal and Barrons, with no loss of sense or education value.
I do (intellectually, at least) realize that 95% of i-net companies will no longer be around by half time, but I believe it would be criminal (not to mention irresponsible to imaginary offsprings) not to play this game out and gather assets for an eventual retreat to a quiet sunny cove in Maui. Our education, experiences, and sense of historic and social relevance and duty dictate that we must contribute to the progress of i-net globalism, and as in all progressive moves, someone must eventually pay a price, even as we ourselves edge towards the emergency fire exit.
We are living in historically significant time and feeling invincible and vigorous. I felt this way once before, during 1990-1991 in Manila/Borocay, immediated after the 1989 TianAnmen event having diminished my consulting business in China, renovating (nay, flipping, in English, or stir frying in Chinese) buildings. My two Aussie partners and I started with risk capital of US$ 100k, got our NAV to US$ 7 million, and back down to US$ 100k, all in 18 short months. I learnt that bankers do use four letter words, and that "we successfully crossed the rickety suspension bridge over the deep gorge, after making proper judgement of the risks involved; and a hungry mountain lion stepped out from the rocks ...".
We got sunk in Manila by 45% per annum interest rate when Saddam invaded Kuwait, causing oil price to go up, toureism to dry up and 500k filipinos to return to Manila from the Middle East, all looking for jobs
UNQUOTE
… and on the date you prescribed, I did this …
Message 12432932
QUOTE
…
Read the "Devil take Hindmost". The parallels are uncanny. All the signs are there. We are living in 'living history'. We probably have a good 12 months to go (I almost think 9984 will reach 800k in 2000 or not ever get there at all), and I believe the proper way to play this is no longer diversification, but massive bets on a few names of different maturity (9984 vs dotcom.com), take profit out as we go. Diversification is only good against quakes in a few names, not in a market cataclysm. I feel more energized than ever, as if my whole life was spent preparing for this one glorious trip out of the harbour.
On this basis, Golden Power is cheap and MSFT is dirt cheap, and Reuters is free.
Being scared is healthy, but it must not paralyze us. In the game of Quake, the guy who stops moving and the guy moving slowly are dead. The guy who moves fast and the guy hiding like a girl (I do no mean that all girls hide, so no offense meant) are alive, but rewarded differently.
UNQUOTE
… and then I sobered up …
Message 12438115
QUOTE (January 2nd, 2000)
Edwin and Malcolm, I am curious at times and, gad, look what I found ... message 7289 on Bre-x thread ... the party for that stock fell apart around message 7370. So, let us not get into an argument and concentrate on our basket(s) of eggs. If I am right, I do not have to argue, and if I am wrong, I can not afford to argue.
UNQUOTE
... and so, yes, that date you prescribed was an inflection point, or at least a warning of an inflection point, especially if viewed through our collective 20/20 rear viewing glasses. Not a lot of folks saw what was coming, and fewer still acted on their vision.
Chugs, Jay |
