Hi Thread, and yes, that would be you Tradermike, CB, Maurice, DJ, Elmat, Maurice again, Jim, Freeus, David, John, DAK, KyrosL, KastelCo, and Maurice once more, along with many more and the ever-present lurkers, and, oh, did I forget to mention Maurice within the last few names.
I had refrained from posting recently for two reasons, namely (a) a new acrimony on subjects with no possible resolution has over taken the thread during this time of heightened emotions and magnified threats, and (b) I realized that my normal vocabulary set is not politically correct or sensitive.
I will apologize now, up front, for what I am about to write and reference, in light of the human tragedy that has changed the complexion of my vocabulary set.
But life must go on. My wife and mother-in-law have decided to proceed with their trip to Paris at the end of this month, to support my brother-in-law’s cello competition. I am going to visit a friend this coming Friday, flying United. A member of a long lost branch of my genetic tree, going by the name of Bishop, will visit me in Hong Kong this November, but by cruise ship, via Vietnam. And I am arranging to visit another recently reconnected branch going by the name of Ganteaume, in February. Culture and family will win.
So, no, I did not keep silent because I shy away from controversy. This is the moment to stare at the ugly truths if any moment ever will be, and this is the time of greatest need to explore the possibilities, all are controversial. So, here it goes on a slightly hushed thread.
Bush, Putin, and Saddam were called before god for a heart-to-heart by the fireside at the Holy Cow Bar and Grill. They were told that the world would end in 7 days, and to prepare their respective people for the unpleasant end.
Bush gets on TV and says, “My fellow Americans, I have good news and bad news. There is a god, but the world will end in 7 days”.
Putin gets on TV and announces, “Dear comrades, I have bad news and worse news. There is a god, and he will end the world in 7 days”.
Saddam gets on the radio, says, “My fellow warriors, I have good news, and better news. There is a god, and in 7 days we will have nothing more to worry about.”
What, the joke is not funny? Guess what, I do not find it funny either, not since I had to change the names from Clinton, Yeltsin and Estrada. In a similar way, previously humorous give-and-take posts are, in a few seconds, politically incorrect at the time and now plain nasty … (so, DJ, you are scared about the airport analogy? I am terrified of my vocabulary set)
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Now, my previous personal definition of financial collapse is nearly true and complete …
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… triggered by more or less what we figured could happen …
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… with consequences soon to possibly come true …
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… and now, nearing the previously predicted possible bottom, I see a still more ominous abyss, one without end.
We of this thread owe it to ourselves to turn down the music, put aside the politics, ignore the din of the media, disregard the issue of right and wrong just for a moment, and instead, read the facts, just as they are, just is, and listen to all the various interpretations, distill the truths, and figure out an out for the future, if there is one, first for ourselves and our families, then our countries and ethnic groups and other far less meaningful to almost totally meaningless sub-divisions, as these are the very divisions that got us to where we are, goading the masses of the world, the one meaningful aggregate, to surge forth in global war, in the midst of an enlightened age of great wealth producing equalizing technologies, but also of awesomely destructive asymmetric warfare weapons and methods.
The demon seeds are once more released from their cages, and the same monsters are in plain view, but there may not be an out, as there was none for 1929 and 1939, now adding up to 2001.
We need to fulfill the calling of this thread …
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What are the facts? A previously not seriously considered rogue force has unleashed an attack on the already fragile financial system, adding to our vaguely recognized and somewhat acknowledged problems …
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… and now uncovering an ancient abracadabra I do not like, and one that Elmat did not count on. Now, the facts, and just the facts:
(a) Middle Eastern royalties are moving out of the desert sands, with their families;
(b) US troops are moving to the Gulf region, away from their families;
(c) Israeli and Palestinians have allowed their guns to go silent, but not so much for their own families, as much as for other families around the globe;
(d) Troops of Han soldiers are moving west, Slavic armies are moving east, the warriors descending from the great horde of Genghis are moving south, and the New World fighters are moving across the ocean, to moved north, all converging on a spit of land holding nothing, full of purpose, and of the people that defeated all great warrior kings since the dawn of history, at not better odds;
(e) All the chips are back on the table, previously negotiated deals re-opened, whether one wants to play or not, in a game hard to win, easy to lose, and that does not allow quitters, nations and individuals alike;
(f) The equity markets have crashed (MeDroogies may disagree, and Maurice certainly does as well), but in a more orderly fashion than expected;
(g) Global employment market has seized up;
(h) Real estate bulls are now as the tech mania bulls were, afraid;
(i) As money is flooding the financial system, in seemingly organized ways;
(j) Even as wealth is vaporizing in great margin call dollops for the elite families;
(k) A made for TV speech was made by the leader of the world, as speeches were made by past leaders of the world, but this time we understandably have no promise of troops returning by Christmas, or victories around the corners;
(l) Because the consumer Christmas has been cancelled and we are looking at too many possible corners, all dark.
Here are some questions open to interpretation:
(a) Who is/are the enemy(ies)? A rich man with a funny beard hiding under a rock in the moonscape that is Afghanistan? A hijacked religion? The same old geo-political power sphere game overlaid with a newly recognized four thousand year old conflict? All of the above?
(b) Was WTC an one-off event or the beginning of perpetual asymmetric global guerrilla war? I do not know, but matters do not look one-off, especially if the answer to the previous question involves a lot of folks and complexities. In any case, I do not feel confident about one-off categorization, and neither do the global insurance companies.
(c) What is the scope and territorial confines of the war? There simply are none, and complicatedly, global, anywhere, any time, any way, at any cost, over time, forever.
(d) What constitutes the end of war? I suggest, in the absence of clear obtainable objectives, the war in fact is perpetual, until exhaustion, because the world needs oil, and most of the oil is under threat, possibly by twisted democratic consensus within the territories in which they are found to be plentiful or must travel through.
Each of us will have our own unique set of answers, but in the aggregate, the set is not promising. In aggregate, we are fighting a ill-defined set of enemies motivated by economics and underpinned by religion, in an asymmetric global guerrilla war, over the one commodity that powers all civilizations and most cultures, with no end, and possibly facing the domino-like toppling of medieval royalties and ancient religious orders.
If the above is indeed an aggregate of answers of this thread, then forces far greater than we have ever seriously imagined now threaten us. Had any one here voiced this aggregate prediction a few short months ago, the thread would not have even bothered to respond with a genuine thought-out response, because there is no need to respond to a crackpot. Now we have no choice but to think through the problem, as defined.
If not, then, yes, QCOM can be picked up cheaper than before, and as Maurice noted:
<<You are one smart guy to see the link between hydrodynamics, CDMA and the world's economy>>
But, also think about the link between war and destruction, death and panic, destruction, panic and the economy. No value judgment is necessary, just the math of very expensive oil and very depleted wealth, combined with a war without end. Call the Bass family if necessary.
In case there is still any doubt, I again say we are now in geo-political uncharted territory, just as we had solidly entered unmapped financial landscape, and we are well advised to silently suffer through impending inflation and income loss, forfeiting a controlled amount of purchasing power and be ready to make up for the loss with any number of possible attractive trades down the road, as opposed to trading in and out in the financial arena, only to be blighted by forces we do not fully understand.
And in case of doubt, we can always adopt Maurice’s approach, flak jacket opened, CDMA phone held high, holding back the powers that only answer to the Aztec Cross and the Crescent Moon.
Translation: Maurice, go to cash, in all its flavors and colors, digitized and metallic, now that it is no longer king, but everything.
Chugs, Jay
P.S. Is god a man or a woman? |
