Don, regarding your comment:
"I believe the Chinese will postpone their decisions to produce maximum power from their negotiating position as King-maker, searching primarily for technology transfer of knowledge and build-up of forces within Chinese or Asian markets. Qualcomm shares and educates; Europe does not. Ultimately, they will rely, like the U.S., on capitalistic competition to winnow the 3G wheat. They are patient and can wait until a winner becomes apparent, if they continue to let China Telecom and its southern branch build out CDMA WLL. Long-term, which is how the Chinese think, they are positioning for 4G and after.
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I have a problem with your perspective.
There have been stories in the news since last September regarding cdma450 and China, Telecom and Netcom, including:
Message 18037156
Message 18041980
Message 18043138
Message 18051539
Message 18061807
Message 18066378
Recent statements by China vendor TCL Mobile and others have been more substantive:
Message 18344415
Message 18364768
Message 18500137
Message 18505576
Then there are recent reports of Telecom trialing 3G cdma2000 (meaning, in China, evdo):
Message 18493070
Message 18493201
Message 18498227
Telecom's and Netcom's rational reasoning for cdma450 PHS over their present Japanese TDMA version is that they begin their 3G infrastructure build under another name.
If Telecom and Netcom are truly moving to cdma450 for WiLL services - if MII has agreed to allow them to do so - their 3G selection is also sealed.
MII will have postponed NOTHING.
Little negotiating leverage would then remain, save leverage regarding Mobile, who would face a whole new world of hurt. And very likely, Mobile would demand and receive proportional control over its own fate.
In my view, Telecom and Netcom are burrs under MII's saddle that MII cannot ignore. They're driving events - likely faster than MII would prefer.
Telecom and Netcom will have a dramatic effect on Mobile's decisions as well... as Mobile, while losing money on GPRS services and witnessing the wCDMA recession in Europe, ponders odd man out status in China.
In my view, if we receive confirmation of Telecom and Netcom and cdma450, the game's already over. |
