They laughed when I said dump oil and buy gold...
..........................................but +1,293% later - they aint laughing no-mo!
.................................................................HUI 500...WHODATHUNKIT!?!?!
It seems almost a forever ago. October - December 2000.
Dark days for gold, gold stocks, and gold bugs. In fact,
there's been none darker... before, or since.
I was an oil bull. Among the biggest. But, I saw an opportunity
unfolding. Not just any opportunity, but a historic
opportunity. Something that at the time - few others saw, or
believed possible.
Gold had been hammered down below the cost of production.
Central banks and hedgers like Barrick were dumping ton,
after ton, of gold onto the market.
Gold stocks were imploding. They weren't just hated...
they were kicked aside, and they were left for dead.
But, a few of us... saw that historic opportunity where
everyone else saw nothing but despair.
Today we reached a milestone for the gold stocks - HUI 500.
And very soon, we will reach another with $1000 Gold.
So tonight I'm celebrating. Poppin' a few corks, and tipping
my hat to all of you - many of you who also also believed in
that historic opportunity - 7 years ago.
So tonight, there will be no "Smackdown.".
Tonight - we celebrate!
... and then, tomorrow - we get back to work.
Until then... here's a walk down memory lane...
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Message 15027791
12/15/2000 10:31:16 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
The US Dollar has only now; begun to crack and begin its inevitable fall - right here; right now; is when they can least afford a Gold spike.
What will unleash a spike ? A global event; currency, debt default, or foreign market implosion... or, a major player ala~ a Robertson, Buffet, Soros etc entering the physical Gold market in a big way...
I guess what I am saying; is Gold's move is inevitable and I am not concerned at trying to time it's upward move; as I accumulated a portfolio weighted positon during the "cheapest 3 months" out of the last 15 years of XAU history.
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12/15/2000 9:45:04 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (3) of 95447
Message 15027391
“…it's just prudent to recognize historic buying opps; which is what we've just had at Xau 40-50; literally the cheapest "quarter" for the XAU in 15 years... cheapest valuation in history of the gold miners on $ per ounce of reserves & an ounces of production basis as well...
Gold: If not here & now; where & when ?
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Message 14960865
To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (80913)
12/6/2000 6:51:57 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
Got Gold? Gold +16%, DROOY +13%, HGMCY +13%,KGC +11%,GLG +8%, SIL +7%
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Message 14944353
To: Olaf Koch who started this subject
12/4/2000 8:12:45 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
The next 6-12 months won't be boring.
This is a history lesson unfolding here imo... we are definitely living/investing in interesting times...
An alltime Bull Market, the birth of the internet & dot.com-mania. The evolution of "online individual trading" and daytraders, the impeachment of a President & the epic inability to certify the election of another... $35 Oil & $7 Nat Gas with a crashing Oilpatch market, Gold given it's last rites for the 10th time in a decade ... interesting times - indeed.
PS: Remember the "real" Golden Rule:
HE WHO HAS THE GOLD - MAKES THE RULES
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Message 14939967
To: Second_Titan who wrote (80678)
12/4/2000 12:42:14 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
XAU/Gold's move continues this am - it's an omen folks...
XAU up 20%, HM up 50%, NEM 25% off their lows; run NEM run ~
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Message 14864652
11/22/2000 12:13:53 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (2) of 95447
The Yellow Dog is moving off the porch...
... allways beat the crowd to the party.
Nearly every XAU/GOLD bottom has been of the explosive "V" variety - ie: if you weren't early - you weren't in cheap & instead of trying to catch a falling knife - you'll be trying to catch a lit candle...
Five, or six 2-3 bagger type of rallies have occured in the XAU in the last 15ish years.
The XAU stocks are now at "alltime" lows in valuations - the lowest price in the index history for $ per ounce of production & ounce of reserves.
For Gold - there is only one question; if not now - when ?
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Message 14824901
11/16/2000 1:58:05 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
I am pursuing building a aggressive portfolio weighting because of what I see and believe... patience; and once again - the XAU has allowed 4-5-6 tremendous money making opportunities over the last 15 years with the XAU moving thru 150ish - which is a near quadruple from here by the way... and the stocks here are now at alltime lows and more importantly - at alltime valuation multiple lows on the basis of what one is paying per ounce of production & ounce of reserves in the ground.
When, not if - and if not now; when ? - given the alltime lows one is paying for production & reserves !
yes; Gold & Silver; now - more than ever ...and patience.
This wasn't the first in the last 15 years that Gold & the XAU were given their "last rites" - nor, will it be the last.
I never liked Fiat Automobiles; yet alone the paper ~ gold; most definitely was, is and will allways be money -just ask Greenspan - as he is firmly on record to this; but Gold merely became a necessary "stabilization" tool for the ESF/PPT to quash inflation fears and keep King Dollar propped up... Gold was "Victimized" here and you'd think all the Clinton-Goreite lib's would love Gold for that reason alone (VBG).
Presently; given the valuation of the Gold & Silver Stocks; it's not a question of owning Gold & Silver; just a question of owning how much (VBG) !
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Message 14823042
11/16/2000 10:51:41 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
of 95447
Gold moves in broad cycles and it is surely at a sentiment bottom - I love it; give me all the insults & digs...
The XAU technically is very stable here; with positive OBV & Money Flows in many individual stocks like NEM.
…Love, or hate Gold; it's had about 5 major rallies to XAU 150 - levels that are near 4 baggers from here - with 8-10 baggers in the small caps over the last 15 years.
Everytime that Gold was forgotten, dismissed & given last rites - it rose like a Phoenix and it will again.
Maybe I am wrong, but cashing in profits is never wrong in my book; but given the choice of Rubin & Greenspans Fiat Dollar, pieces of paper representing shares in a 10 year old Bull at still record valuations showing numerous signs of exhaustion, let alone shares in a cyclical sector at historic commodity price tops; or Gold and Cash ? ... it's not a question of having, or not having Gold; it's not "if" to be in Gold & Cash; but merely about "how much" Gold & Cash imho...
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Message 14789561
11/12/2000 10:35:08 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
Gold - now; more than ever ~
... just watch.
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Message 14782826
11/10/2000 11:13:33 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (4) of 95447
The question is this simple: if not here - when ?
1- Gold shares are in many cases at alltime - yes; alltime lows in shareprice and in core valuation multiples based on $'s paid per oz of production and reserves.
2- alltime short position via the derivatives
3- alltime high US Equity valuation multiples
4-$30 Oil shock
5-Unsustainable simultaneous account deficit & King Dollar
6- stress fractures in numerous global economies & currencies as a result of the too strong US Dollar
7-Mid East & now US Presidential Election turmoil, stress & risk
George... now if someone told you two years ago; that you could buy Gold stocks at alltime lows - with a record short position; with Mid East tension rampant, with $30 Crude Oil, with a US Presidential Election in turmoil, with the US Dollar at unsustainable highs - with this accout deficit and a US Equity Market at Still Record valuation multiples, but in the crash mode..... what would you have said ?
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Message 14782246
11/10/2000 10:01:04 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
Gold is going up; it's only a matter of how fast & how high...
Got Gold ?
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Message 14764449
11/9/2000 11:39:20 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
“… concerning Gold; it is not an industrial commodity to the extent Oil is & obviously so; but Gold matters and is valuable for more complex & compelling reasons right here & now than it ever has been.
In an era of fiat currencies & near bi-annual Global Market Meltdowns in which the intervening agencies have warned that they can no longer handle another; the system has been leveraged to a degree that the next global crisis may bring home the value of Gold as currency as never before.
Never before in history has the global financial markets reached such levels of complex derivative leverage along with a degree of intervention, stabilization - ie: manipulation. Gold was , is and will allways be a currency; a global currency - as well as the ultimate port in the global perfect storm.
We simultaneously have Gold reaching historic lows in valuations & shareprices & the need to hedge via, or to own Gold due to Global risk - rising exponentially; that is the anomaly sweetspot that should attract contrarian opportunists like bears to honey and it is - in my case...
imho - the XAU has formed a base here of 43-48 as a technical bottom; however a final capitualtion blow off is surely possible on some "event" - and that is a welcome event as this will surely be the oft-seen "V" bottom shakeout that is needed. Xau 35ish may be that - so position yourself accordlingly on an average-in basis.
The reports of the death of Gold are more than a bit premature...
Now - more than ever ~ GOLD
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Message 14734204
11/6/2000 8:22:42 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
Gold & Silver - when, not if ~
PS:Commitments of Traders report
Commercial traders are going long gold. Position nearly doubled in last week.
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Message 14710792
11/2/2000 11:06:48 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (2) of 95447
I still love the Golds into "all" weakness here..
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Message 14702203
11/1/2000 10:43:45 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
of 95447
“…. reinforces this as a significant entry point & the compelling historic valuations make the XAU/Golds a portfolio weighting bet here and into any & all further weakness if seen.
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Message 14688281
10/30/2000 1:53:17 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack
Read Replies (1) of 95447
“… there will be lots of time for Gold-Gloating.”
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Mo-flation & mo later,
S.O.T.B. |
