gold history, love and war
chronicle of my gold trades, starting circa 1999, to this day, more or less
Message 11919728 (circa 1999 11 13)
My operating assumptions and responses going forward are:
(a) volatility for the prime assets, trending up to BUBBLE proportions (valuation always over-shoot, in both directions) - hold longterm stake and trade options, be prepared to buy back at higher prices and sell at lower prices, then make 180 degree turns;
(b) spillover of mania to other asset classes - hegde with GOLD via selling of puts;
(c) genuine growth for top techno companies in IT infrastructure and content/commerce pure plays - buy and only play with quality;
(d) tears for the rest - stay away from Amazon and any B2C except Yahoo; and
(e) Continuing shift of bubble to other financial centers (Japan/Europe and Hong Kong) - follow the liquidity bubble. Trust the Force.
With Nasdaq Japan and Europe and 9984 acumen, I would be watching for the development of a US i-net play listing in Japan Nasdaq and Euro-Nasdaq via E*trade IPO machine before listing in US Nasdaq, as companies in global businesses (all i-net plays should be global plays) should list not in home market but in market with highest bidding P/E ratio. After this development, it would then be time for some of us chicken at heart (count me in this group) to take the ball home and have dinner at pool side to music of the Mighty Sparrow.
I sound positively positive about year 2000, even to myself and that scares me somewhat. Sitting on 9984 and looking down is much like landing at the old HK airport and staring at what's for dinner and on TV in passing apartment windows.
Finally, no debt!!!
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years of lovely wonderful fantabulous gold trading, in and out, zig then zag, on and off
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Message 24160139 (circa 2007 12 25 waypoint re-calibration)
here is an excerpt of my 2007 eop briefing to family members whose interest I look out for:
December 23rd, 2007
Subject: 2008 Note
Preamble
... As of December 23rd 2007 the Fund (edit by TJ: defined as everything excluding rental real estate) is up 28+% Year-to-Date.
We have collectively done well in 2007, and aim to do better in 2008.
I believe we are well positioned to navigate the obviously dire financial storm:
Cash @ 65% (1/7 in CAD cash, rest in USD 3-mths T-bills, with a bit in SGD, and a wallop in HKD, which, while a proxy of USD to which it is pegged, is better than USD, given the regime's small and non-interfering nature and genuine freedom practiced)
Gold & silver @ 23%
Equities @ 12%
Review of 2007 …
Issues and Concerns …
Forward, We Must Go …
I am concerned, but not paralyzed. I believe we must be:
(i) High agility, be observant, ready to move in large and rapid steps, and to admit mistakes;
(ii) High cash, but in official treasury bills, in case financial intermediary institutions holding our assets go bankrupt or is otherwise not bailed out cleanly. We will at least get back paper with our name on it, even if after a painful time delay. Be ready to ease out of the USD again, into other asset classes, and this time may be for good long time;
(iii) High gold, for gold has performed rather consistently over the past 7 years, and past 6,000 years. However, we must keep in mind that the price of gold had suffered 50% loss in the lead up to its inexorable rise to then all-time high back in 1981;
(iv) High hard and soft commodities, meaning everything useful, like metals and foods, but perhaps wait for a wash out unwinding of currently and uniformly high prices underpinned by possibly unsustainable debt. When and if the speculators are forced to SELL, they must SELL everything, not just what they want and wish to SELL, but also what they prefer holding on to;
(v) High energy, but be cognizant that when the recession (never mind depression) hits, energy will be hit as well;
(vi) High China, but very slowly and carefully, and only after the inevitable bloodletting; and
(vii) High Hong Kong real estate, gradually, over time, and to generate current income while standing a reasonable chance for capital gains.
Message 25242140 (circa 2008 12 10)
i) following on to last night's Message 25239229 general mobilization, i doubled up on gdx position finance.yahoo.com at prices ranging from 27.4988-27.5927, because i feel it is time, as opposed to think it ought to be time.
(ii) made arrangements to take possession of hefty mass of PLATINUM wafers, delivered to hk airport, where i must personally make the customs clearing arrangements. the counterparty tried to talk me into setting up a more convenient segregated vault allocation schema, but he knew to say no more when i stated 'i want the stuff within my grabbing distance'
(iii) tomorrow i will open my pal's safe deposit box per this post Message 25241061 and take possession of minerals and crystals i find within, to help him out, and to help my family out.
(iv) i feel that the dollar is dead currency walking.
Message 25255765 (circa 2008 12 15 waypoint re-calibration)
i am now at ...
cash 22.40% (8.4% cad, 1.5% chf, 6.1% hkd, 0.4% sgd, 0.1% rmb, 5.7% usd)
physical & certificate pm 26.11%
re 32.78%
equities
- gold/silver mines 6.80%
- others 11.91% (energies, solar, tbt)
Message 25439075 (circa 2009 02 24)
(i) i will take possession of a whole lot of PLATINUM tomorrow at the office, ordered Message 25428744 , and then, weighed down, to walk to the vault. once done, that would be it for PLATINUM transactions for a while; perhaps 10 years, maybe longer, could even be forever.
(ii) i sold a whole lot of paper gold today for mucho gains, to lighten my worries, by as much as 2/3 of all my paper gold holdings.
i intend to hold the remaining paper gold and the gdx positions until kingdom come, or sooner if called for.
(iii) bought some more panda gold bullion. the distributor is rationing supplies, and so i now must grovel and haggle for more.
(iv) have a lot of travels coming up, including a 3-weeks holiday, and if per tradition, events in markets everywhere could go kaboom.
(v) i already regret offloading the paper gold stakes.
just a guess, gold will ramp, and should it be so, thank goodness for physical and gdx.
2009 03 19 Message 25506414
cabal of sabotage experts, troops of special ops, legions of field armies, and phalanx of occupation troops took massive positions on GDX hill, valley, entry, exit, town square, airfield, mayor's office, hospitals, schools, broadcasting stations, harbour, bus depot, and subway terminals, at average price of 36.82
2009 05 22 Message 25664444
(i) added to gdx @ 41.9492
(ii) shorted gdx july put strike 40 @ 2.35
i think the companies that constitute gdx will benefit from increased demand for their products by folks seeking salvation from maddened mob electorates.
and should people fail to seek sweet redemption in gold, they will fail.
2009 07 19 Message 25795426
(i) got notification of assignment of gold mining etf shares (gdx) at $40/shr for put options shorted here Message 25664444 at $2.35/shr, and am happy to have been burdened of the resultant gdx
(ii) i bought a load of physical gold panda 1 oz bullion coins (circa 2004) from some fellow i know who ran out of cash, at usd 929/oz
2009 10 02 Message 25989982
(i) i sold a lot of covered call contracts gold miner etf (gdx) december strike usd 43 @ usd 3.50+, thus committing 65% of my gdx holdings to a bearish wager, and had the proceeds placed on usd call deposit, believing that while the usd is worth-less, it is not worthless, at least not yet, and certainly not before onset of 2010;
will use the newly generated cash to offset obligations to do with renovation of the beachside rental's renovation, so that i can engage with more gold out of the eventual rental flow.
2009 12 17 Message 26184366
have commited a scripture sin. i off-loaded 90% of certificate gold (edit: purchased at this juncture Message 25505864 @ hk$ 8,632/tael w/ tael = 1.2 oz) to recognize and secure a well deserved and average 22% ytd gain, to lower my aggegate physical gold's cost basis by 365/oz (now cost basis, after netting, is about 400, or below extraction cost), even as i was just as prepared to use leverage and quintuple same certificate gold and different paper PLATINUM as well as formless silver holdings just a few hours ago. i do not know what i am doing, and i do not wish to know what i have or will do, for i just want to survive and speculate another day.
forgive me, fellow travellers, for now all my gdx are covered with calls, just about all paper gold are gone, and i cower on my physical pile, much like that lawyer character in jurassic park, attempting to avoid a dino sashimi fate by sitting on toilet in grass hut.
i can now much sleep easier, and hope to re-engage with paper gold at a more opportune moment - again, to partake in the goodness of the market arena.
2009 12 18 Message 26188679
Just a few book-keeping chores of the score-keeping sort, to count blessings and track bounties, in addition to the earlier counting Message 26186238 of blessings
(i) This trade 2009 10 02 Message 25989982 <<i sold a lot of covered call contracts gold miner etf (gdx) december strike usd 43 @ usd 3.50+, thus committing 65% of my gdx holdings to a bearish wager, and had the proceeds placed on usd call deposit, believing that while the usd is worth-less, it is not worthless, at least not yet, and certainly not before onset of 2010>> …
… is now closed with 65% of my gdx called away at 43. Together with the 3.50 call premium earlier collected, altogether a fair trade, and now I am positioned to short puts, massively, at an opportune moment;
(ii) This trade 2009 10 20 Message 26034296 <<(i) shorted a lot of gdx dec covered call strike 48 @ 3.00 …
(iii) sold a bunch of gdx at 47.51 … a bit longer on us dollar and slightly shorter on everything else, before it becomes again fashionable>> …
… is partly closed, with me booking the 3/shr premium as obligation-free and someone else booking a loss. This is altogether a more fair trade than above (i) while also serve to enhance the overall result of above (i) more favorable, in my direction, and thus fairer.
(iii) Again this trade 2009 10 20 Message 26034296 , part two <<(ii) shorted a lot of gdx march covered call strike 50 @ 4.30>> …
… we must wait and shall see whether and how I am to be rewarded.
(iv) The good things about closure are (i) one get to do the deed again, (ii) in better psychology than before.
Ideally, gdx drops to 43 at some juncture before mid-march, allowing me to short some puts at rich premium take, exit the calls at profitable turn. Then I can reload a series of trades to harness the energy of the market place once again, and also setting traps here and laying mines there so that some straggler in the unreal tournament is excused from the last man standing game.
Oh, and yes, hopefully the dollar also ramps, ramps, and ramps some more, to soften up the positions that must be engaged with, captured, held, to better wait for the … eh, I best stop and not get too graphic.
(v) Once the underpinning premise is discerned correctly, the rewards just keeps rolling in, as one harness the energy of the market to and exchange fro, in alignment with the force, choreographed like one of those gravity-defying unreal tournament warriors of last man standing gaming, fluid motioned, beautiful, cart wheeling, spinning mid-air, scoring :0)
I best stop, else I would be punished, for I am fearful of the scriptures, all of them, and fear is healthy, panic is rational, terror is delicious :0)
Message 26225483 (circa 2010 01 06 waypoint re-calibration)
(a) yesterday i recalibrated my portfolio and followed up on this earlier trade Message 26199855 .
and in alignment with this general direction Message 26213367 i bought back at hkd 10,374/tael the remaining 2/3 of all PAPER GOLD i had so astutely unloaded back on december 17th Message 26186238
the round trip expedition out of GOLD netted enough to be replace interest income otherwise unearned even as a big cap gain was temporarily monetized and now once more solidified. iow, the exercise was worthwhile and for a good cause, my cause :0) even as the overall stance is more rather than less the same when temporary greed compelled me to betray my GOLD.
(b) i am now at 28.05% better off position than at this time last year, and am at
cash @ 6.84% (hkd/usd 0.1%, cad 6.1%, euro/chf/rmb 0.64%)
bonds @ 2.11%
physical metals @ 16.58% (50/50 au/pt value at 1120/1450 mark to mark, 56/44 au/pt in oz term, w/ physical GOLD cost basis at 404).
certificate metals @ 17.22%. Should the metals tank, I now stand ready with 50% leverage on NAV to triple up on certificate metals, so as to better engage with destiny of fiat PAPER money.
rental real estate @ 40.13% (lower of cost and market). Folks are enquiring whether we want to sell. No asking for whether we wish to buy.
equity @ 17.12% (energy 3.8%, GOLD mining 5.2%, others at 8.12%)
Message 26235261 (2010 01 11)
(1) exchanged a lot of paper for a lot of paper gold, and am now in debt as a result, but for good cause, I figure.
I used 10 % of my planned leverage, or 10% of my nav - I plan on 100% nav leverage, but might just hesitate at 50% mark.
(2) exchanged some electronic blips for some gold panda bullion, thus mineralizing excess savings and solidifying surplus capital, for the long term, in case there is ever a zero-state monetary reset. If n when so, I would engage n embrace.
Message 26255592 (circa 2010 01 19)
(i) shorted covered call options on gold miner etf (gdx) finance.yahoo.com (march, strike 50) @ 1.81, for i need some funding for sustenance, including but not limited to food, drinks, utilities, education, gas, entertainment, airplane ticket, maid services, starbucks mint mocha, lessons for skating, kung fu, piano, gymnastics, ballet, and the list goes on and on
(ii) purchased material measure of PLATINUM etf finance.yahoo.com @ 162.9/oz because i like its heft, figure the wager might well provide for future sustenannce
(iii) purchased large tranche of palladium etf finance.yahoo.com @ 46.21 since i enjoy its shine, and because i like balancing off the strategic metals in pairs - who knows, maybe one of the two PLATINUM group metals eventually would be elevated to 'unobtainium" status per avatar the movie
while i realize that all of the bets are highly volatile wagers, i am psychologically o.k. as i can take comfort from the enormous gains already made from same theme over the past 100 months via longs on physical, certificate, mining shares, by way of options.
it saddens me that i may have to exit these positions w/i 60 days, and it frightens me that i might have to summon courage to engage with more of same within same time span.
in any case, the gdx option trade above paid for 20% of each of the above pt and pd wagers - so i am doing speculation judo, borrowing the energy of the market to tip over the exchange.
Message 26266982 (circa 2010 01 22 waypoint re-calibration)
(i) I am intending to have a light weekend. The usual, starting with American junk food Starbucks Ice Mocha Frappucino, Chinese healthy reflexology session, walks about, lovely lunch, comfy naps, dinner with friends, reading to daughter, a DVD movie (“Gamer” youtube.com ), and, naturally, contemplation on the state of is. I will also squeeze in a bit of necessary and genuine work, so as to reduce my workload during the coming week that involves travel to Beijing, to give away some GOLD coins to counterparties per tradition of lunar New Year holiday spirit. Chinese Asia will shut down for holidaying starting one week before February 14th, and would not get revved up until 7 days after February 15.
(ii) I am now stanced so, after accounting per inclusion of new savings and mark-to-market of physical and PAPER metals with some sandbagging (usd 1k/oz for au, 1.4k for pt), valuing rental at lower of cost and market, and removing from consideration off-balance sheet GOLD that belongs to daughter (adds 1700 basis points to physical metals)
Cash 6.6% (cad @ 6.0%, hkd/usd 0%, chf/rmb @ 0.6%)
Pt/Au 39% (43% physical w/ 49:51 split on pt/au, with inconsequential ag in all forms)
Bonds 2.1%
Rentals 39.1%
Equity 13.2% (3.6% energy, 4.5% au, plus whatever, inclusive of short covered calls on gdx)
And have ready 1:1 financing to establish leveraged positions in pt/au/equities, or deploy to rentals should values crumble.
The above looks and feels like a full position, and it is, even as GOLD and platinum are more money-like than equity-like. I am firstly playing any GOLD drubbing by copvered calls on gdx, and am prepared to play by massively shorting gdx puts when opportune. I am not prepared to short GOLD.
(iii) In hindsight, it may have been for the best that I had not made up my mind on what the year would serve up in terms of ramping this and tanking that. I suspect lots of loot could be available for extraction from the markets via puts and calls, and especially so from the GOLD complex.
(iv) I do not believe interest rate will ramp or that central banks will stop quantifying, but I am sure that at times the market will believe in anything. We are blessed.
2010 01 19 Message 26255592
(i) shorted covered call options on gold miner etf (gdx) finance.yahoo.com (march, strike 50) @ 1.81, for i need some funding for sustenance, including but not limited to food, drinks, utilities, education, gas, entertainment, airplane ticket, maid services, starbucks mint mocha, lessons for skating, kung fu, piano, gymnastics, ballet, and the list goes on and on
2010 02 05 Message 26301660
(i) closed my earlier Message 26255592 shorted march gdx calls strike 50 @ 0.44, recognizing a well deserved and healthy profit of 1.81 less 0.44 over 18 days
(ii) opened with shorted march gdx puts strike 40 @ 2.12
2010 02 09 Message 26308743
shorted gdx march strike 42 puts mentioned earlier Message 26308657 were executed at 2.59
2010 02 19 Message 26331926
closed earlier Message 26301660 shorted gdx march put strike 40 @ 0.61/shr, making a wopper
2010 02 19 Message 26331834
just shorted covered calls on gdx march 44 at 2.26 - 2.27
2010 03 20 Message 26398546
(i) this trade Message 26308743 <<the shorted gdx march strike 42 puts ... executed at 2.59>> expired worthless on my worth-less counterparty, a good happening; and
(ii) this trade Message 26331834 <<shorted covered calls on gdx march 44 at 2.26 - 2.27>> enabled me to shake off my gdx long position at 44, booking the 2.26 premium as unencumbered proceeds, adding to the 44 taking, when gdx itself closed at 45.31; i.e. i can buy back at 45.31 what i sold at 46.26, or just short more puts as in part (i) of the program, as i know have more capacity, being less encumbered, so, another good happening.
i figure on shorting gdx puts at some juncture in the coming week, since i really should have some gdx in inventory, or build up some more well deserved gains to buy food, pay tuition, invite friends out, take a holiday, or help boost capacity to short some gdx calls.
wall street types try to make speculation seem like investment, when all it be is a computer game, and an easy one at that. on-line unreal tournament last man standing death match is a much more challenging game.
p.s. we must approach each serious and material trade as we would a campaign, comprised of many battles, but all serving the same full-on end purpose, until the counterparty is truly less, i suggest
Message 26527385 (circa 2010 05 11)
(i) I got notified to take possession of a load of physical pandas later this week purchased here Message 26508431 (may 4)
<<engaged by special order for and on behalf of friends and jack, contracted for more panda GOLD than i can carry, at price of usd 1,221/oz, to be delivered in two weeks time fresh from the mint of the new sovereign. the idea is that jack should not be at a disadvantage to the coconut when it comes to education trust funding>>
(ii) I am feeling rather good about GOLD, and whenever I am so ‘disposition-ed’, I fear, and so I sell down GOLD. In this instance I sold off 50% of all that I purchased December 24 through January 11th (see below) at average price of hkd 11,190, and recognizing enough net margin to pay for above (i) with enough left over for walking around change.
I now feel better, and am more inclined to buy PAPER GOLD should it tank when and if some sorry EU nation announce GOLD sales to pay for its wastrel ways, and do same with gdx and its derivatives.
I am happy to hold my positions until at least tomorrow. I could not sell more PAPER GOLD today because I simply ran out of time when the on-line bank metal desk closed for the day.
Message 26533738 (circa 2010 05 13)
(i) was going to sell the other 50% of PAPER GOLD referenced here Message 26527385
but got talked out of the act by sharp trader of this and that, but also of GOLD. he said something about "Yamada says next stop 1500 I agree".
... OK, good enough for me for now.
Now that I am no longer leveraged
Message 26235261 (jan 11) <<1) exchanged a lot of PAPER for a lot of PAPER GOLD, and am now in debt as a result, but for good cause, I figure.>>, i guess i can chill for a while, as i no longer feel fragile.
Message 26547963 (circa 2010 05 13)
continuing this round Message 26527385 of unloading / dumping of 50% of PAPER GOLD, i sold another 25% of original PAPER GOLD stake at hkd 11,288 per tael, and thus, in some sense, recognizing deserved gains.
GOLD is fun, and there are no corporate reports to read, and so is easy.
you should try it. i think you can be quite good at it.
trading GOLD, imo, for most folks could be good at it quite naturally; just buy when wish to sell, and sell when want to buy.
Message 26547963 (circa 2010 05 19)
continuing this round Message 26527385 of unloading / dumping of 50% of PAPER GOLD, i sold another 25% of original PAPER GOLD stake at hkd 11,288 per tael, and thus, in some sense, recognizing deserved gains.
GOLD is fun, and there are no corporate reports to read, and so is easy.
you should try it. i think you can be quite good at it.
trading GOLD, imo, for most folks could be good at it quite naturally; just buy when wish to sell, and sell when want to buy.
Message 26565492 (circa 2010 05 26)
i) bought several tranches of PAPER GOLD at hkd 11,199 per tael, going a bit beyond previous high watermark in terms of taels
(ii) bought several tranches of swiss franc chf at hkd 6.733299
(iii) bought several tranches of canadian dollars cad at hkd 7.30300
will likely acquire still more tranches either this afternoon, tonight, or over the next few days.
i may be a bit early, before folks discover that team usa is actually in worse shape by many measures than down and out greece and soon-to-be-fell spain and certain-to-fall uk, especially as team usa can do a more complete job of cleansing its entrepreneurial class.
at some point the turn will come, maybe not for the euro, but certainly for chf / cad vis a vis the very ill usd.
Message 26582815 (circa 2010 06 01)
) just unloaded 100% of PAPER GOLD @ hkd 11,350/tael earlier bought on margin 2010-05-26 Message 26565492 at hkd 11,199/tael so as to sleep better, and
acceptably rewarding.
(ii) also just unloaded 50% of all owned/free-clear PAPER GOLD at same hkd 11,350 which were bought 2010-05-24 Message 26560053 at hkd 11,064, thus reducing overall physical+PAPER GOLD position by about 25%
wonderful gains
may off load more, because i wish to better enjoy summer, less any concerns
nothing moves up in straight line, and not a whole lot crashes at one go
am concerned that recent flurry of bad news that be GOLD bullish may taper off (note: ok, this bit of pretense to rational analysis is rubbish, and i will not trouble you with technical charts and such because i never look at them until after i make a move in either direction)
if so, wish to be less exposed
actually i partial exit has stuff-all to do with news flow
certainly nothing to do with reality
just liked to shuffle a bit, per on-line unreal tournament last man standing deathmatch
matching random emotions to similarly random market
i try to keep true to practice of buying when wishing to sell, and selling when pondering to buy, but only for the PAPER stuff
physical be my discipline, only because the weight and fuss counteracts my random inclinations
in any case,
should GOLD crater, am now psychologically better disposed to wade in with leverage
should GOLD ramp, can be easily convinced to offload and fight another day
Message 26661327 (circa 2010 07 04 waypoint re-calibration)
On positioning, I marked to market on rentals so as to give myself a undistorted picture; and I left private equity at give-away 50% below cost so as to manage my expectations, and am at
Cash: 28% (Cad 8%, HKD/USD 17%, Chf 3%)
Metals: 27% (58:42 physical / PAPER)
Rental and speculative RE: 38%
Equity: 7% (mostly energy and paas and some this and some that)
Message 26720305 (circa 2010 07 30)
i have two thoughts,
(i) it is interesting that, gold being so supposedly useless, and the people who hold them especially in physical form so clueless, and all so barbaric, and yet the stuff can be used to secure loans. if and just so, i can think of a lot of other stuff available from any septic tank that should be equally useless.
(ii) i best get more gold, even if in unallocated paper form, to help out the global economy, and assist the deserving and ever so-privileged banks.
and so i just did, added massively, as in mind-bending wallop strength, of tranches of noble paper gold position at average price of hkd 10,810/tael, as well as hedged my brave wager with several tranches of strategic paper platinum at 12,157/oz.
these days i am busy, cannot do dd due diligence on anything of script flavor, and so restrict myself to the purist of macro machinations, that which depends on astute agility, the noble and the strategic. their pricing 24/7 incorporates all that is known, knowable, as well as suspected but unknown, and probably even the unknowable. so much less fuss, plus neither pe ratio nor board meetings to worry about.
Message 26733584 (circa 2010 08 05)
whatever leveraged GOLD i got Message 26720305 at hkd 10,810 per tael on july 30 i unloaded today at hkd 11,040
2% is good enough for now, for 5 days of anxiously watching
but hey, no due diligence necessary and no management announcements to pay attention to
these leveraged 2%s tends to add up rather quickly
the 2%s must be taken and taken care of, and converted into mineralized surplus at whatever the spot GOLD price
and so we tap the waste heat of the useless GOLD market, and make sustainable an addictive hobby
now the leverage capacity must wait for the next opportune moment to position for the next 2%
such is the only use of useless PAPER GOLD, a deformed derivative of GOLD, which in turn is also useless but for clawing onto a hard-won position as long as such hard-wins are denominated in troy ounces
if only i can do 2% every 5 days then i would be ... :0)
Message 26846613 (circa 2010 09 24)
(i) this trade Message 26721178 that shorted gdx put ended well, meaning i deservingly get to keep premium moolah and am freed of obligation to do anything. i like the "cloud atm"
(ii) this trade Message 26819990 that went long gdx GOLD miners, short gdx puts and gdx calls, is looking good, as gdx stays more or less steady, and the options waste away. "cloud atm" is nice.
(iii) this trade Message 26833623 that went long slv silver and paas pan american silver, and short their puts and calls, is trending right, as the wager stays in straddle and options waste away. clear skies for "cloud atm".
Message 26874195 (circa 2010 10 08)
Sold all PAPER GOLD in all accounts @ hkd 1,232.10 and hkd 1,232.20 per mace.
Still have the earlier reported "cloud ATM" trades involving gdx, slv, pas, and their respective options trades on wager.
Must realized some profits so as to better fight another day.
2010 10 20 Message 26034296
in keeping with this earlier trade Message 25989982 , i
(i) shorted a lot of gdx dec covered call strike 48 @ 3.00
(ii) shorted a lot of gdx march covered call strike 50 @ 4.30
(iii) sold a bunch of gdx at 47.51
(iv) still have a whole lot of tranches of gdx to either sell outright, or issue calls upon, and have full phalanx of certificate gold to unload on whole lot of someones at some juncture opportune
i figure i should get a bit longer on us dollar and slightly shorter on everything else, before it becomes again fashionable.
Message 27240142 (circa 2011 03 16)
(i) returned to hong kong, a vulnerable society in too many ways, because we depend on much of the same technologies as do japan and the rest of the oecd world
(ii) in so far as i am concerned, the relevant non-usa happenings (north african insurrection / civil war, middle eastern revolution/intervention, european sovereign default process, china economic slap-down, australia flood-in and housing bubble, and japan everything except godzilla-resurrection) have all been tee-ed up, already in play, not yet played out, and certainly not yet discounted for the very worst.
(iii) we can know neither the workouts nor the work-arounds, because there are none. in the hands of fate from here on out.
(iv) much of the above should get far worse, even as team america continues on road to permanent insolvancy, to be resolved only one possible way, the mathematical way.
(v) somewhere out there is a mindless non-answer, and that be "usa qe3 usa qe3 usa qe3", which shall be exercised pre-emptively, or be forced by enveloping circumstances, of oil shock, capital w/draw contagion, competitive easing, or whatever else. the how does not matter. the is holds aces.
(vi) we may be blessed with a replay / fractal-scale-up of lehman crises, to the exponent of 10. this time substitute saudi arabia for lehman and japan for aig.
iow, too big to fail this time may well fail because we are talking about wars and revolutions, mother nature and dirty bombs, as opposed to simple accounting and just liquidity.
with so much already known knowns and in fluid play, we know except for the deluge/quantity of faithless PAPER money that must at some point come our way.
i edged another step towards true safety; if i am wrong, i double down and would be bailed out, deservingly of natural course.
this afternoon i kept it simple, trying to be the purist
(i) doubled own PAPER platinum @ hkd 13,308 per oz (equiv usd 1,710) - i must make mention that this is the first time nanyang commercial bank PAPER platinum traded at premium to supposed spot. no matter.
(ii) added PAPER GOLD holdings at hkd 13,028 per tael (equiv usd 1,395 / oz)
going forward ...
(i) i do not feel like exiting my less-than-full-wallop precious metal miners, still have much capacity to add, and so may just ride the wave crest down, and sell a lot of puts at the 'bottom' to make up the difference due me.
(ii) i am unsure what if anything i would do about shorting general equity market; i shall decide when i decide. i feel uncomfortable about shorting the general market.
i may or do one of those triple leveraged short etf on the worst of the garbage.
comrades of the fellowship, good combat, let us prey after praying, and then hopefully prey again, for many must fall so that a few may rise.
Message 27288720 (circa 2011 04 06)
massively sold
- off-ed all PAPER platinum at hkd 13,781 per oz bought here Message 27240142 and
Message 27233988 and
am now PAPER platinum naked except for a residual orphaned position established way back whenever actionable only during hk's night time
now have clean start going forward on pt w/o mental baggage, and
- off-ed 1/3 of all PAPER GOLD at hkd 13,451.5 per tael that be bought here Message 26886418
got slap-happy and sold off 1/3 of trading PAPER GOLD acquired mid-october (when correcting another iteration of faithless trade) Message 26886418
just could not help self once i started to repeatedly hit the sell button (bank has per button push sell limit) as would a lab rat.
sell sell sell, ooooh, feels good, sell more. even as GOLD is getting more precious by the minute.
am done selling for the productive day.
now looking forward to secret appointment followed by more selling this night.
sell sell sell. must sell in order to buy.
Message 27476241 (2011 07 07)
bought 1/3 of eventual paper silver position per Message 27476235 logic, to front run the chinese, at hkd 282.11 per troy oz, before the chinese front run the americans.
am imagining the scene on the day the planet stops spinning and americans do as the chinese once did, showing respect to the metals and with enthusiasm, and with cnn providing 24/7 coverage.
Message 27491321 (circa 2011 07 14)
just executed buys of papers
- 1/6 strength pt @ 1780
- 1/3 strength ag @ 38.53 (hkd at 7.76 rate to usd for conversion)
- 1/3 strength au @ 1,582
Message 27499411 (circa 2011 07 18)
Just did the following trades -
- SELL wallops of NLY covered Calls, 17.5, Jan 2012 at 0.75
- SELL wallops of NLY Puts, 17.5, Jan 2012 at 1.28
- SELL wallops of PAAS Calls, 38, Oct 2011 at 1.40
- SELL wallops of PAAS Puts, 33, Oct 2011 at 2.70
- SELL tranche of MCD Puts, 85, Dec 2011 at 4.10
- SELL tranche of ABX Puts, 48, Oct 2011 at 2.59.
Socialism works better when enhanced with tax-free cloud ATM extraction.
Guessing that
(i) Yield curve steepens even as short rates continues to stay low, and real yield remain negative
(ii) silver shall be sought as a shelter by the proletariats against ruthless monetary depravity
(iii) the proletariats shall be eating more big macs n freedom fries and save the icky fancy treats for their wall street oppressors and Capitol hill enablers and Madison ave facilitators.
The oppressed and oppressors may fight over rabbit meat. Time shall tell.
(iv) Abx is undervalued relative to what it is camping on |
