To: DiViT who wrote (41921 ) 6/10/1999 4:57:00 PM From: BillyG Respond to of 50808
Changing DVD Trends (I assume this favors DiviCube)electronicnews.com From Electronic News--June 7, 1999 Comment by Christian Joly Milpitas, Calif.--The way VCRs are used today on a worldwide basis provides a healthy yardstick for forecasting the growth of DVD and the direction the technology is heading over the next four to five years. In the United States and in China, VCRs are mostly used for viewing movies. Rarely are they used for recording purposes. On the other hand, Europe and Japan use the VCR's recording capability quite often. The China video market in particular provides a good DVD-ROM market growth indicator. The VideoCD market in that country has had extraordinary growth since the recording capability of VCR has not been popular. The fact that the Chinese and U.S. consumer leans more toward viewing and not recording is a good indication that DVD-ROM will be even more successful. This is further reinforced by the fact there is now and will continue to be over the next five years a major price difference between DVD-RAM and DVD-ROM. The consumer will opt for DVD-ROM players due to their lower price. A DVD-RAM player with both viewing and recording capabilities will probably be available in 2000 at a high $1,500 price point, well out of the reach of most consumers. A DVD-ROM player for viewing purposes, on the other hand, is currently at the $300 to $399 consumer acceptable price point. As long as there is a big price delta between DVD-RAM and a VCR, the consumer will not be motivated to buy the $1,500 DVD-RAM system. However, consumers will more likely begin considering this DVD-RAM buy when it reaches the $200 to $300 price level. The second-generation DVD-RAM in the year 2001 will likely be cut in half to around $850. But consumers won't see the $200 to $300 price tag until around 2004 or 2005. At that point, I believe DVD-RAM may have major consumer acceptance. However, it will depend on the price delta between DVD-ROM and DVD-RAM . If the volume comes in China and the United States, then the DVD-ROM market will explode. On the other hand, if the volume is in Japan and Europe, then DVD-RAM has the greater potential for explosive growth. Because the China DVD-ROM market has been marked with various formats such as VCD, CVD and SVCD, and some U.S. DVD suppliers have offered their own format brands, the DVD-ROM market has been adversely effected. These formats have prevented DVD technology from reaching its next major growth milestone. However, over the next one to two years, you can expect to see a convergence of these formats toward DVD, and the DVD-ROM market will experience significant growth in this near-term period. On the price side, there are two clear factors driving price decreases. First, the drive is currently the most expensive item of the DVD system. It is imperative that drive suppliers continue to develop newer technological innovations to reduce DVD drive cost. Some companies are now investigating new design approaches that are expected to yield these cost reductions. Semiconductor content plays a major role in paring down DVD pricing. The major contributors in this regard are system-on-a-chip (SOC) companies that can provide the industry the right levels of SOC functional integration and advanced process technologies that push higher levels of performance and lower system costs. In the near term, chip suppliers like these must also possess considerably more technical system expertise in the areas of video, audio, and servo control firmware for the drive, for example. It is not enough anymore to just be savvy about MPEG-2 decode; extensive system know-how is paramount. The importance of system knowledge cannot be understated. DVD technology and its application will grow even more sophisticated with the incorporation of newer video and audio algorithms, thanks to advances in SOC hardware and software. Consequently, the DVD system manufacturer will continue to rely on its top suppliers like SOC vendors to provide them with leading edge system and applications expertise.