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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (62343)	6/14/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>Which means that there is a 95% chance that a long term investor will not lose any capital on a nominal basis. Now let's adjust the return by inflation. The conclusions will remain pretty much the same. What does this tell you?<< it tells me a math class is in order ;-) if you adjust for inflation then the 95% MUST drop lower. i'm intrigued by the fact you don't mention a number. even if it is 90%, that is still ok. however, i can't invest in the past. let's take market peaks and dump our money into them (we are in a market peak now - it makes no sense to compare to depressions, now does it?). it is a losing proposition. sure, you might eak out a treasury note after 20-25 years. that is, if the stress or a family member doesn't kill you or take half of what little you have. however, if it works for you, go for it. just don't disappear when it stops working ;-)

To: BGR who wrote (62343)	6/14/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

How about the German market from 1915 to 1945..? <g> -mb

To: BGR who wrote (62343)	6/15/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

For lack of time and a better metric, we could look at the Consumer Price Index for a measure of inflation this century. The CPI for November 1929 was 17.2, and the CPI for April was 166.2. That's 966% of inflation that happened along the way. Ouch for those of us who stuffed cash in our mattresses! Regardless, it must not be too comforting to the Japanese who see their assets at perhaps 40% of the bubble peak 10-11 years later (after inflation) to realize that in a mere 20 years there's an 80% probability they might be ahead again (of the mattress).