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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (31040)	6/15/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

<<watch for signs of a reversal b/c this can't last... >> You could be right, but there are enough conflicting bullish and bearish elements to the outlook that it is really tough to predict what will happen.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (31040)	6/15/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: yihsuen	Respond to of 70976

amat is doing much better than i expected. i still think it is expensive If you held AMAT long enough, you know it's doing OK, not great, for taking all those big swing into consideration. Shorting AMAT is close to be a hobby for a lot of folks. I would say the current price is reasonable for the future growth is obviously tangible. the dram players are losing gonja bucks on dram and pricing is collapsing again Only a few players left, stop the painful investment in the capital equipment is equal to death. they continue to buy equipment. not sure how long that can last Look at the today release of 10Q, clearly, the growth is in Asia. And for Asian countries who does not invest heavily into semi business will be third-class countries as usual. The strong demand for AMAT product should continue, and one of the major customer coming will be China. So I would say AMAT future is some what tie to Washington politician, they can make things very difficult. Granted that the matter is not as urgent compared to Boeing, Loral and GM. JMHO

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (31040)	6/15/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Skeeter,hey continue to buy equipment. not sure how long that can last. watch for signs of a reversal b/c this can't last... Hope you have seen the Roadmap for Semiconductors which Brian posted earlier. IMO, it outlined the rationale why the Semi-manufacturers are buying equipment--they have no choice. Either purchase the equipment to keep up with Intc, Mot, Samsung, etc or go bankrupt. They may still go bankrupt with purchases but at a slower pace as they compete against the big ones.-) Brian, you might want to repost the Roadmap to show how the competition must keep up. IMO, this is the reason WS is placing so much value on AMAT, the Semi-Equip Gorrilla, they are looking 6-9 months down the road EPS wise. If the cycle is the same as 1997-98 then when the EPS is high the price may be lowest. Just compare the Rolling EPS with AMAT's price in the past. Just my opinions. Paul