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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/4/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: sportsman	Respond to of 95453

diana, Count me in on being weary on small cap E&P's. I will stick with RIG, MRL, etc. It will take patience, but I know I will be rewarded. I own a small cap technology company that has been growing at 30%+ for two years and the stock has fallen. It seems like small caps are either pumped & dumped or they do nothing. I have decided to stick with mutual funds for my small cap portion of my portfolio. Happy 4th, Sportsman

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/4/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: James Cherney	Respond to of 95453

Diana...Small cap E&Ps While I agree with you and your caveats concerning the group my experience is as follows. PN $6 - $11 3mo VGCO $3.25 - $4.24 3mo FXEN $5.00 - $7.625 3mo AXAS $2.00 - $1.18 3mo PGEI $2.5 - $2.32 3mo While MMs have made it difficult to fill my orders, spreads some times absurd; 3 out of five ain't bad...jrc fwiw also long VEI looking to pick up another 4k

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/4/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

A brief Note regarding UFAB, techstocks.com SargeK

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/4/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Diana Definitely agree with you on those little E&P's. Best to stay within your comfort zone. They are too illiquid and subject to manipulation. They may have a golden future but their history of profitability even in good times is very shaky. I'am one of those stubborn types who still thinks the future is in the deepwater. Interesting note in this week's ODS rig count. offshore-data.com Flat offshore utilization may be due to increased interest in floaters and declining interest in jackups. I think these mega-majors are going to be interested in bigger plays than can be found in the shallow water. OT re Blues Brothers..you are right, Ms. Smarty...Only Joliet Jake did the hard time..Elwood put in his time in the Cook County Jail. Thanks for not pointing out my other mistake...that Al was a pillar of the community in Cicero and not Joliet.<ggg> Best, John

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/4/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

You still have to do your homework on the small E&P's. For example someone was singing the praises of a small company in the last day. I'll not mention the name. When I looked into it I found that their liabilities exceeded their assets by over $7 million and they needed even more money (good chance they won't be around next year). Another one was spending phenomenal amounts of money exploring (not producing) overseas. On the flip side I have found a few, that I also won't mention, that have been actively drilling during the downturn, and have a lot of wells coming on line this summer and/or fall. The general concept IS a no-brainer. small E&P's are going to directly benefit from higher oil and gas prices, especially if they set up their hedges right. Those that are drilling are also getting the drilling services at rock bottom prices. It's a double whammy. Which E&P's you pick determines how much you will benefit. I don't like the ones with phenomenal debt loads (there are many), especially if there has been recent significant insider selling. I do like the ones with insider buying, natural gas wells both in and outside the Gulf Coast area, and the ones that have become 3D Seismic believers. (MEXP is particularly desireable in all these respects). I would expect folks who do their homework and pick right will be handsomely rewarded by the end of earnings season. I plan on being one of those people.

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/5/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

diana, I hear you about being cautious with the small E&P's, I do have a lot of tales to tell from the mining stocks but that is the tuition one pays in the school of markets. Trouble with NG stocks is anything with a lot of appreciation left has some risk to it, they all got pounded so hard on their financials 4Q98/1Q99. BTW, FGI had an evening star completed on Friday. I am not sure I am going to put much faith in it as it did not have enough of a run up nor volume to validate the star pattern . Also a lot of other OSX stocks had formations which were similar in spirit if not in actual chart formation. In any case, with the potential OSX dynamics tomorrow, I am expecting FGI to turn and negate the pattern, but I will be vigilant. Regards, Roebear

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/6/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: Rose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

MRL: any update on the deadline? I see one rig was completed and on its way, but how about the pending pressure? Rose

To: diana g who wrote (47338)	7/7/1999 1:54:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

P-Patrol; Comstock Resources upgraded by Lehman Brothers... sm cap E&P's ,,,nothing like beating the crowd to the party now is there Post Patrol ? - Ka-Ching$ ! Read 'em & Weep...up nearly another 5% today...the beat goes on...(VBG). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <<Anyone (Besides Me) Wary of Small E+Ps ???? --Which may be easily subject to stock price manipulation? --Which are under the control of families or other tight-knit groups which don't include me? Whose interests might not always run parallel to that of more peripheral stockholders?..... I've never been into small mining stocks or anything similar...Some do look very attractive, but I think there are quite a few risks involved that I don't take with OSX companies and their ilk. > --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ???? stock price manipulation.... ''mining stocks'' or anything similar ? ''stock manipulation'' - gimmie me a break ! - yeah; Lehman Bros. has been pimping CRK.... .... First; let's get a handle on the right subsector here... the mining stock similarities could be drawn in comparison - ''IF" we were talking about the ''Speculative - Pure Exploration'' plays - where the entire viability of the company depends on the success of an unproven single well, drilling project, or individual prospect area. The fly by night, high risk - speculative and the total , live, or die by the drill bit plays are NOT what we've been discussing here. CRK, MEXP, HSE, OEI and XTO are not some Papau New Guineau boiler room, hocus pocus-road show, snake oil exploration plays... These are low risk, proven and diversified; primarially low risk Nat Gas development companies. MEXP has been in business for over 50 years with a sterling Industry and financial reputation - and has worked hand in hand with the top ''big'' Oil companies. ... the comments of being ''under the control of families, or tight knit groups'' is not germaine to this group, or class of companies... this aint TEUPEF, AIPN, or RedSnakeOil Drilling Co.... Many of these companies have drilling success rates of 80% of late, some like HSE are doing refracs and low risk development. UPR/OEI are comparable to DO, or RIG, or GLM in size (relative to peer group). << but I would buy into such companies Only if I were Personally Knowledgeable about their operations, owners, etc.>> ... I do not think that Bob Simpson and the boys at XTO have any trouble joining the right ''clubs'' down Texas way...and I don't think that when a firm like Lehman Bros. upgrades CRK a week after some individual investors recognize a valuation and pricing anomaly - let alone the numerous other frontline Wall Street Firms who do know that everything is above board with the likes of CRK et al.... try Moody's or other Bond/financial Rating agencies etc... << but little has been said about their potential for Hidden Risks. >> hidden risks ? you want to compare ''hidden risks'' - okay; how about FGI having an outwardly unexplicable degree of short interest ? Having a CEO who is retiring in 2 years - whose personal interests and maybe even his personal portfolio; may be diametrically opposed to shareholders interests ? Whose companies entire valuation may have been contributed to a one time blip on the Deepwater Rig Construction market - that may not see 50% of the construction activity in the next decade as it saw of late ? FLC ? - you want risk ? GLM - bankrupt once before .... RIG ? - now in the Caymans...? GIFI UFAB... similar, if not smaller than HSE & CRK; how many micro's in the driller & service arena do we candidly talk about that are actually smaller than many of the E&P's we are referring to ? Risk ? - how about being at the mercy of Cap Ex spending by the Big Oil's - regardless of the price of Oil ? How about rig utilization, dayrates and earnings that are falling into the face of rising Oil prices ? One sector controls its own destiny and reaps the instantaneous rewards of higher commodity prices - the other lives & dies, by what the Big Oils decide to do budget-cap ex spendingwise... Risk ? - how about H O M E W O R K ? PS - Nothing personal Diana; your post if reflective on the misunderstanding in general of this sub-sector... and the companies that we are speaking about... My entire point is that both the fundamentals and the risk vs. reward factors for this sector so vastly exceeds the OSX right here, right now - that this is entirelly a ''safe'' fundamentally supported move...