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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (9140)	7/6/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: pressboxjr	Respond to of 57584

Well, for one thing, I would be out of stocks by December 31st, LOL. Seriously though, that is why I like DLTR, WMT, LOW and HD for the short term. Can you imagine all those maniacs going in to load up on all the goodies for the "big meltdown"? That should help earnings for the short term, I would think. And how about HD opening up "smaller" stores? Think they don't realize what is going on. I give them the nod on being alert and reaching out to the smaller communities. As far as the Y2K goes, I can tell you this............I watched on the local news here in OK about a couple months ago and one town (Blanchard, I believe) did a test to see what would happen on Jan 1, 2000. Boy, did they freak out!! The traffic lights would not work and almost everything shut down. I also saw on Nightly Business Report where some Y2K analyst said that most of the hospitals are not even close to being compliant. He said they could start now and still not be ready. He did say that most of the military and government installations were compliant though. Funny though, he said Ft. Benning, if memory serves, actually rolled their dates back (cheated). Funny world we live in, isn't it?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (9140)	7/6/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

IMO, of the thousands of variables which factor into the market's performance, the Y2K issue is the least predictable... there is no precedence. If it were possible to take away the uncertainty of Y2K I would subscribe to Rande's belief in a definite rally after the historic late summer woes. Unfortunately it is not, and I believe perception of Y2K's implications will result in volatility (and volume) like we've never seen before. Overall market direction will be determined by the caliber of Y2K problems AFTER the turn of the century... we will churn until then. Dave (hanging from a branch on Rande's limb :)

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (9140)	7/6/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

To all. . . . Star Wars Episode I? . . . You won't like what I have to say. . . . OK, get ready to flame me. . . I am going way out on a limb here. . somewhat off-topic. . .but eventually back on-topic. . . Regarding Star Wars Episode I, I thought the casting was the worst I have seen in years. . .none of the human cast had a fraction the personality and adventurous gleem as the original cast. . . not just close. . .not even in the same league, in my opinion. And as for the non-human cast. . .in the first 3 Star Wars. . .there were some amazing scenes in musical bars and singing in trees with adorable creatures that were FUNNY. . . some were funny looking. . .some did funny things. . .same with original cast and original movies. . . there was something in the first three that were very much missed in Episode I. . . humor. The Roger-Rabbit looking and sounding character with the Jamaican accent was put in for comic relief. Fine. But it was nearly impossible for me or anyone with me to understand many of the lines he said. . . even the kids didn't get many of the lines. . .Many of the punch lines simply did not read. By comparison, Chewy, C3PO and R2D2 were at least likeable. . . I found that by the end of Episode I, I still did not care for the main characters. . .nor did I care for the animated ones. . . .MAYBE the boy and maybe the queen. . . but not all that much. The feeling by the teenagers I took with me, as well as the adults. . .was the same. The effects were very 70's and 80's . . . definitely NOT 90's. . .like Matrix is. . . .The plot was fair, but nothing spectacular. . . I fell asleep twice. Even the villain was a bore, though not so much as others. . . Remember the fear that came over you in the theatre when you first saw Darth Vader?????? That breathing. . . . that voice. . . that mask. . . SO DARK. . . but Darth Maul. . .looks more like a WWF wrestler than a world class villain. . .nothing about his look was scarey, nor his voice, nor any other part of his persona. This is all TOTALLY IN MY OPINION, which is subject to change upon further viewings. Now before I get totally flamed-up beyond all recognition [FUBAR]. . .please understand this. . . .I very very very much love Star Wars and everything about it. . . so my expectations were quite high. I have loved it since seeing the first Star Wars in 1977 at the Big Newport in Calif. . . .22 years later almost to the day. . . I saw Episode I. . . . in the very same theatre with its enormous screen and amazing sound. . . .probably in the very same row and definitely within about 10 feet from where I saw the original. Suffice it to say, I am a big Star Wars fan. . . .so I have earned a bit of a right to be critical. So what does all of this have to do with stocks? Well. . . I went to Wal-Mart today. . .and guess what I saw? ? ? Beautiful long rows of hardly touched Star Wars toys. . . hanging perfectly with deep inventory. . . no messes. . . ZERO were sold out. . . and absolutely ZERO kids were looking at them, or asking their moms to buy them. I kept returning, thinking that perhaps SOMEBODY might want one. . . but there they hung. . . . Then it happened. . . I stumbled upon a bargain bin. . . .every Star Wars toy in this huge bin out in the main isle . . . was on sale at just 6.47 or so. Several weeks ago, I noticed empty Star Wars aisles at ToysRUs. . . I didn't notice them at the Toys International because I was there to see the store. . . but I do remember seeing very large displays at a department store in Calif. . .a few weeks after the release. . . and there were zero items taken out of the display there too. So here I go again. . . going way out on a limb. . . . to say it. . . Are we ready? OK. . . here goes. . . . Star Wars Episode I was not a flop, but it was not NEARLY as big as the makers had thought it would be. . . . the kids don't care. . . the adults keep telling the kids that they "should" like it. . .LOVE it even. . . but many don't. The movie died out far quicker than anyone had anticipated. The merchandising was a bust. And I'll bet the fast food retailers are already sorry they signed such expensive merchandising deals. . . because they are not sold out either. I realize that the life expectancy goes on into video. . . but this was supposed to be a Super Blockbuster Smash. . .and frankly, Austin Powers is outselling it hands down. . . . "oh, behave." I am not saying I like it better. . . I am saying that it is filling more seats at the theatres than Star Wars. . . .that is just a fact. So what now? Short HAS??? Not yet. . . .they made a MINT on the initial deals. . . so I expect their next earnings report to reflect some major revs. . . . but the NEXT one. . .that might even include RETURNS. . . the dreaded "R" Word. . . should make for some good short-sell fodder. I welcome all opinions. . . and I certainly don't expect anyone to have the same views as I. . . but remember. . . It is thru our discussions and arguments that we arrive at our great plays. Rande Is

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (9140)	7/6/1999 11:59:00 PM
From: ThirdEye	Respond to of 57584

William, per your comment on Y2K- this is my list of top 5 probable sectors likely to experience at least one newsworthy Y2K problem: 1. Utilities 2. Small local/regional banks. 3. Manufacturing sub-contractors-like major auto parts suppliers. 4. Municipalities 5. State finance operations Other possible sources: manufacturing operations with masses of distributed hard-wired chips, like oil refineries, off-shore rigs, satellite-dependent systems, medical equipment; Asian nations.........and I'm sure others out there can name a few more. Problem is, no one is goingto admit to a problem until it's too late--and even then they probably won't.

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (9140)	7/7/1999 10:22:00 AM
From: Buddy Smellgood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Y2k: Most states recently switched to a new fiscal year without y2k problems. I've got a buddy working on Y2k preparedness for Los Angeles waste water systems. He's not saying there won't be problems, but says very few the systems with date functions, in his area of expertise, fail under y2k. They record the date wrong but they keep working. Many y2k problems will and have occurred well before the actual January 1 boogey-man date. Some will happen after. I just don't see Y2K as a scenario that Tommy Lee Jones could star in (in the U.S.) How y2k plays in the East and affects us here is another matter. It's not Y2k that is so much the problem, it's the perception of the problem. I'm hoping people do freak. I'd love to buy. If people think that January 1 is a meltdown date, then the question is when will they pull money off the table? A week before, a month before? Will we be able to point at it and say, "hmmm, a y2k sell off." Buddy