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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (24338)	7/8/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Uncle, Re: "shoot, i don't even like to talk about pc's. i am kinda dumb when it comes to pc's. i would much rather talk about drams. after all, this is the rambus rdram thread right? dataquests projected dram sales for the next few years is... 2000...$35.5 billion 2001...$60.1 billion 2002...$104.3 billion" I suspect that your DRAM dollar numbers are way off. Or you had better by micron stock lickety-split!!! Lets take this another way. Lets say that RDRAM prices in late next year will match TODAYS SDRAM prices. Today 128M memory module goes for what.......say $75. And lets assume 20M pcs/yr use 128Mb of RDRAM memory. And lets say the royalty is 1.5%. That works out to $100M in royalties. Lets assume that profit is fully 50% of royalties that a profit of $50M. Now thats how much profit per share???? Oh and no way are 20% of PCs and servers going to have RDRAM by end of next year. Regards, Kash

To: unclewest who wrote (24338)	7/8/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

uncle, my point was that the demand elasticity isn't in favor of pc companies using expensive dram. rdram is INCREDIBLY expensive. why would i dump another $100 in rdram into a box that i can only sell for $50 more. dq forecasts are a running joke for anybody that has followed them. they had the 1999 worldwide dram market at nearly $100 billion some years back. hint - it is about 15% of that number. using that kind of history as a basis, maybe multiplying their estimates by a 0.15 would get you closer to reality. rdram will work well in high end gaming applications and a few other small niches. dell signed up for rdram - but guess what? they are build to order so if nobody orders rdram pc #1, how much have they lost? $0.00. what pc company has signed up to invest their own dollars in high quantity to put rdram on the shelves? is it still nadda?