To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (136659 ) 7/15/1999 8:18:00 AM From: George Wave Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
CTC, re: Dell's growth, your insightful comments are appreciated. Let's elaborate though, kick it up a notch. You wrote: "It depends on what you mean by growth. If you are talking about eps I suspect that growth will be around 42% for the next few quarters (owing to share repurchase. If you are talking about revenue growth, I think growth will be in the low to mid 30's, and I think the current share pricing on Dell reflects those expectations." You restore my faith in human intelligence and reason with this comment. Expecting consistent 50%+ growth rates is, to me, something along the line of a fad, "Beanie Baby" like. Let's start right NOW establishing expectations within the investment community that a company that produces regular 40% EPS growth rates and 30% revenue growth is a safe and wise harbor to dock our money. Then you wrote: "The reason for lowered growth expectations is entirely a function of Dell's size. As Dell continues to emerge as the number 1 PC supplier there will be a diminishing market pie for it to capture. Ultimately, growth will be limited by the overall growth of the PC market." The remaining pie is absolutely HUGE CTC! Just wait, as soon as the data pipeline opens up, it will rock our collective worlds. I know executives at large companies that primarily associate the internet with AOL and what they hear on the TV. Some of these guys don't even know how to log on. They just don't fully comprehend, yet, this electronic rumbling of the earth their starting to feel at their feet. I heard the CEO of a large US financial and banking firm state that his company is still working out their internet strategy and that they don't become involved in fads! Chuzzlewit, HE PERCIEVES ONLINE BANKING AS A FAD! Believe me, there's an astounding amount of potential market for Dell to feed off of for many years to come. We have not been to the mountain top yet...though occasionally the clouds may clear to provide us a fleeting view of the top...we're still climbing. On belay. Best regards, George