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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4737)	7/19/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

Good benchmark post, Mike.. thanks. What do you suppose the % variance in accuracy is re Jupiter's numbers? I'd also like to know how many users were counted twice or more times, due to the need for multiple accounts, as I suggested in the my post which preceded yours. Regards, Frank Coluccio

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4737)	7/19/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike, <Just thought I would post, for the record, how users connect to the web this year. Here are the stats from Jupiter Communications for projections at year end 1999. __________ Satellite: 200,000 DSL Phone Line: 400,000 ISDN Phone Line: 500,000 Cable TV Coaxial: 1,200,000 Analog Dial-up Phone: 32,400,000 Total Online Connections: 34,700,000> Jupiter seems to be on the conservative side but nonetheless in ball park. It amazes me to see some of the hoopla around DSL and Cable when it comes to last mile implementations. This is going to be a slow ramp outside the techy world but the hopes and aspirations of the service providers, equipment providers seems to be boundless. How does anyone justify the market values of the equipment providers like Redback, Paradyne, Globecom etc. in that context is something beyond my comprehension. Anyone care to take a hack if there are any good equipment vendors with stock valuations closer to ground? Chuck

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4737)	8/21/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: Some More Last Mile Stats: DSL vs Cable Thread, Here are some interesting stats about DSL and Cable Modem (I linked this to my previous Jupiter stats). The title of the article is quite misleading, because the only reason cable modem growth, "slows," is because the cable modem itself is such a small part of the infrastructure it takes to create a two-way HFC plant. And the infrastructure buildout takes time. So I got a kick out of how they headlined the story <VBG>. But cable still leads twisted pair by a substantial amount. Cahners predicts 2.6 million cable modems shipped for 99. While Jupiter predicted 1.2 million hookups for 99. Pretty wide spread of estimates. But still substantial figures for what is really the first big year for MSO upgrades to two-way HFC networks. I thought it was most surprising to see Cisco being number two in the ADSL modem market?! They never even mentioned this in their Q4 CC. I'm almost certain that if CSCO knew this, they would have mentioned it. Only thing they said was, "DSL was a challenge." MikeM(From Florida) ____________________ *ADSL Modems set to Reach 1 Million Shipments in 1999, Cable Modem Growth Slows* August 19, 1999 - According to a recent report released by Cahners In-Stat Group, worldwide ADSL modem shipments grew 59 percent sequentially in Q2 99. This growth is indicative of broadening service roll-outs in the US and internationally. By year-end 1999, modem shipments are expected to top one million. Alcatel led the market in ADSL modem's shipped with 33 percent worldwide share. Cisco ranked second with 18.7 percent share followed by Orckit with 13.7 percent share. "While only a few vendors hold the majority share in the ADSL modem market today, the move towards a retail and PC OEM market over the next 12 months will change the vendor line-up considerably, said Shannon Pleasant, Senior Analyst for Cahners In-Stat's Voice and Data Communications Group. "We are already seeing several new entrants in the cable modem market that are traditional retail players." Cable modem growth continued to slow to 21 percent sequentially. Based on 1H 99 results, worldwide cable modems shipped in 1999 will reach over 2.6 million, still a considerable lead on ADSL. While overall growth slowed, Cablelabs/DOCSIS based cable modems increased to 19 percent of cable modems shipped in Q2 99, up from 13 percent in Q1 99. This trend is expected to continue as standards based cable modems become available from market leaders Motorola and Nortel Networks in the second half of 1999. Motorola and Nortel Networks combined, held 49 percent of total cable modems shipped in Q2 99. Com 21 ranked third overall with 11 percent unit share. 3Com, General Instruments and Samsung lead in DOCSIS based modem shipments.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4737)	8/26/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: @Home / AT&T Cable Modem Stats Thread, I linked this to my previous post from Jupiter Communications stats (post 4737). And what follows is an excerpt cut from the @Home (sym:ATHM) thread here on SI. Obviously if Mary Meekers predictions of ATHM subscribers are correct, the Jupiter figure is quite low for 1999 cable modem subscribers. Jupiter says that there will be a total of 1,200,000 cable modem subscribers. Mary Meekers say @home alone with have 1,100,000 (but it does include international). My guess is the 1999 Jupiter figure is on the low side. Also I thought it was interesting that she mentioned the aggressiveness of the AT&T broadband rollout after her meeting with Excite@home executives on July 29th. There was an article in Bloomberg today about AT&T's upgrades to TCI network. It implied they were going to spend $12 billion in 1999(!) for upgrading the TCI coaxial plant. I thought this figure was a little on the high side. Maybe not if Mary Meeker's statement about T's aggressiveness is accurate. MikeM(From Florida) ************************ Mary Meeker Date: 8/25/99 @Home is alive and well. Following the company's recent meeting with analysts on July 29th, we remain convinced that the company will meet or exceed its near term financial targets and its long term strategic objectives. Management's confidence in its financial progress and long term strategy direction is robust. We will be hosting a series of meetings with investors in September. Total subscribers, including international subscribers, should reach 1.1 million at the end of 1999 and over 2.7 million at the end of 2000. Historically, the primary risk embedded in residential subscriber targets has been the installation capacity of the MSO affiliates. AT&T's more aggressive commitment, announced at the analyst meeting**, will more than overwhelm any shortfalls of the other MSO's. Also, the risk of slippage at the existing MSO's declines each year as the installation process is perfected. In addition, the @Work rollout continues to accelerate with $43MM and $94MM of expected revenue in 1999 and 2000. Several of the MSO's have begun to discover the commercial market.