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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carol alba who wrote (2714)	7/22/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

As they say, "Buy when blood is running in the streets." Unless, of course, you happen to know the market will drop tomorrow also. The market declines of this week are healthy, having blown the foam off the top of the brew. My take is that NITE's drop is a confluence of events: 1. Lockup expiration - some insiders may have sold (they filed Form 144's). 2. Fear of Lockup expiration-related selling. 3. Price erosion has triggered margin calls. Subsequent margin call-related selling has caused further declines, which, in turn, trigger further margin calls. 4. Traders who expected short-term gains on NITE's excellent earnings report are disappointed and are taking their money out. 5. Perception that SCH,DLJ,Spear's ECN deal is going to matter to NITE. Though ECN's do present some threat to MM's, it will take a while before there is a critical mass of ECN activity to generate enough spontaneous liquidity to compete with the market making capability of NITE. By then, who knows what NITE will be into. Certainly, they'll be sharing order flow with ECN's and will have some profitable partnerships. When the above factors, most of which I view as transient, do pass (and they will), NITE will experience some amazing buoyancy. From the Conference Call, it is obvious Pasternak is concerned about shareholder value (especially if he wants to make an acquisition, he'll use shares). He did say that he's frustrated that the market doesn't accord NITE a PE comparable to that of SCH. Because of Paternak's comment about being "frustrated with NITE's PE", I think we can expect NITE to take some defensive measures in the next few days, e.g. accelerate the announcement of a positive development, etc. Morgan, did you listen to the Conference Call? I don't get the impression you did, though I missed a few posts. If you haven't, it's worth spending an hour.

To: carol alba who wrote (2714)	7/22/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Lee Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

I think if any of the big banks or brokers were ever interested in acquiring a MM in order to benefit from the growth in online trading now would be a good time for them to take a serious look at NITE. NITE's goal is to become the #1 MM in the world. Wouldn't this strategy fit in with C,CMH,MER,MWD or one of the European financial's looking for a larger presence in the US market? NITE looks mighty cheap here. Still holding long..... Regards, Lee

To: carol alba who wrote (2714)	7/22/1999 4:46:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10027

OK - NITE closed below 48 - which is not great. From my TA point of view - which I expressed in a post yesterday: Message 10595988 I thought a close below 49 would be good, but not below the 48 1/2 line. I would have liked to see a close around 4 5/8. The reason is that that was a line of considerable support, and while broken intraday, I did not want to see closed below. The trouble is that a close below the 1/2 point (48 1/2) leaves the momentum to go below the 1/2 point, while a close above the half point (f.ex. 5/8) allows for an upward momentum. I definitely do not like the close below 48, as now 48 will act as something of a barrier, given that there were buyers at 48 1/2, who will now be nervous and willing to sell on any climb. My short term perspective on NITE was dependent on today's close, and on today's EOD action, as I said earlier. Obviously, from that point of view, I am somewhat concerned. What this means to me, is that NITE has no internal strength. I base this on the following: 1)NITE has declined far further than the market correction justifies. For example SCH, the bellwether of OLBs, actually rose on the day, and NITE as a leader in its market niche should have responded better. 2)NITE did not rise once the market rebounded somewhat, but rather sold off even further - reaching 46 5/8. F.ex. my 'speculative money gauge' stock, JNPR (which I trade daily), ultimately closed the day positive even though it sold off during the worst moments of the market. NITE's trading pattern is not good - it holds more or less during the index declines, but sells off on any uptick. This indicates to me that there is a great desire to get out of the stock, and the MMs are holding the price up to maximise selling returns rather than have the stock break during market downticks (f.ex. FBCO provided support at 47 during the last 15-20 minutes of trading). Going forward, here is what I see: Negative: selling seems to still predominate, as big blocks sell and only small blocks buy. The technical damage to NITE is now very extensive. I do not like the fact that NITE seems to be getting ready to make 50 a significant barrier. The chart now looks bad, with a close below the intraday support line of 48 1/2 (others would point to the close below 49 on the chart as bearish, I do not agree, and my "bearish" number is a close below 48 1/2). Momentum has now gone from the stock. Because the stock has no internal strength left, it is entirely at the mercy of the market, and the market is very jittery. Going forward, the market looks to be bad in the fall, and that is not a good prospect for a brokerage related stock. Positive: the valuation of NITE is becoming very compelling. If the ECN threat can be seen as not significant (the way to show that would be twofold: if earnings keep expanding despite the ECNs it will show that they do not impact NITE's business; second if NITE expands its own position in an ECN, it will be seen as participating in the inevitable ECN growth). Prospects: This is now a longer term B&H. Investors will need patience, until the markets recover, but in the worst case scenario (short of nuclear war type situation), I see NITE at above the $70 mark by April of 2K. My tactic: I have a substantial position at 48 1/2. I will keep this position as an investor. I am comfortable with NITE valuation going forward from this level. However, while I will NOT sell this position (unless the fundamentals change - I now have my FA investor's hat on), I will take advantage of the market and my trading skills to lower my mean cost of NITE. I have already been trading a separate block of NITE shares today, and have very good gains on those. I bought NITE at all price levels down to 46 3/4, and sold toward the close, and banked the cash. I will continue to trade a separate batch of NITE, until NITE seems to me to reach a very low level (this will be determined by market conditions), at which point, I will convert all the cash gotten from the profits, and I will buy more NITE shares. Longer term, I remain very optimistic about NITE prospects. All of the above, is IMO only, and please do your own DD. Good luck to all! Morgan