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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/26/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 13582
 
Ramsey Su: Perhaps, just perhaps, Ericsson is serious re CDMAOne and CDMA2000. Commend this link to Ericsson itself to your and others attention. Remain skeptical of course, but curious what you and others might think. Could Ericsson really be promoting CDMA?

ericsson.com

Chaz



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/26/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: Clarksterh  Respond to of 13582
 
I am surprised that no one has commented on the fact that Qualcomm has added more Integrators to the WK program. While it is true that none of these vendors is a really big name in the integrator community, still this is important news. SAIC, for instance, is not a small company, although not a particularly big name in integrators.

These integrators in effect act as salesmen for WK products, which in turn will increase demand for Q products like ASICs. I'm really looking forward to the first really big integrator (e.g. EDS).

Clark



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/26/1999 2:25:00 PM
From: Lance Bredvold  Respond to of 13582
 
I'm a little gunshy about the possibility of damaging what is proving to be a very good thread, and so will respond to your rhetorical (I think) question as to whether the market is still under valuing much of the Q's potential via PM.
I believe it is missing significant portions of Q's potential. But I also think the portion it is basing its valuation on is way overpriced. And I think Q management was wise to get us some additional funds as they did when they did. The anger displayed by some members of the Coming into Buy Range board implicitly assumed that management had an obligation to maximize stock price at all times. I don't think they do and certainly don't think they would want to. It must be much easier to attract talented employees with options when it is clear that the stock is only appreciated by people like the new employee who can see more of the whole story. Trying to attract the same potential employee with a stock which does not appear to have as much upside potential must be harder. And the thrill of being able to surprise all stockholders on the upside lasts only a few days followed by weeks of mad disappointed buyers who are underwater.
If I were a CEO I would want my stock price to ordinarily reflect the real value of my company. When more money is required, I might like for it to rise above rational expectations, but not normally. And I would particularly like to be in the position we were all in for the last few years when I absolutely knew the Q's price was not as high as it should have been. And sooner or later it would rise.
I did buy some more last week, but I'm not nearly as confident of the wisdom of doing so as I had been a couple years ago. Wish it were at $100 so I could be surer (but I'd like to sell what I have first:)).

I rather expect there is nothing new to you here nor would there be to most of the thoughtful members of the S&P500 board. But I am surprised by the rarity of expression contradicting many investors idea that the price should be as high as possible.

Sincerely, Lance

Ah, nuts. This was meant to be a PM and I find it is not and I have the choice of eliminating it or letting it go public. Hope it is of some value and not just taking up space and your valuable time.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/26/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: JGoren  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 13582
 
Qcom's Complaint against MOT--in detail I have just obtained a copy of the Complaint for Declaratory Relief, which was filed July 20th in Case No. 99-CV-1488-1EG CGA. Most of the following is a recitation of what's in the pleading.

On Sept. 26, 1990, the two companies entered into a DS-CDMA Technology Agreement and related Patent License Agreement (“PLA”). MOT licensed Qcom with respect to the following MOT patents:

4,385,295
4,412,217
4,523,155
4,701,759
4,851,829
5,075,684
5,157,391
5,193,223
5,200,655
5,258,751
5,459,774

Qualcomm alleges that both companies cross-licensed any patents (in addition to their own) that either has the right to license which are technically or commercially necessary to make and sell certain CDMA and Dual-Mode wireless products. In Nov. 1995, MOT acquired from Telular, Inc. the right to sublicense certain Telular patents that MOT and Telular claim are technically or commercially necessary and essential to make and sell WLL products employing CDMA technology. [As an aside, Valueman says MOT owns 15% of Telular.]

The pleading goes on to allege that Qualcomm repeatedly asked for a formal sublicense of the Telular patents. Instead, in early 1997, MOT filed suit against Qcom asserting infringement of MOT patents. The cause number of lead case: 97-CV-0372-J, consolidated with 97-CV-0489-J, -0615-J and –1514-J before Judge Napoleon A. Jones, Jr. Q asserts--as defensive matter to MOT's claims--that all of the MOT Patents as to which MOT alleges infringement are licensed to Qcom by the PLA. Qcom alleges that MOT is “contractually estopped” from asserting the infringement claims. [I said a week ago that MOT would be estopped from claiming infringement if Q's is right that the licenses cover it; I just didn't use the technical term that it is estoppel by contract.]

Under Section 3.01 of the PLA, Qcom alleges it is entitled to terminate the licenses and rights granted by Qcom while retaining the licenses and right granted by MOT if: (1) MOT breaches the PLA; (2) Qcom notifies MOT of such breach; and, (3) MOT fails to cure the breach or breaches.

Qualcomm alleges two breaches of the PLA by MOT: (1) asserting and continuing to prosecute the infringement claims against Qcom; and, (2) refusing to grant Qcom a sublicense to the Telular patents. Qcom says it has repeatedly notified MOT that its is breaching the PLA for two years, but MOT has failed to cure the breaches by dismissing the infringement claims and granting the Telular sublicense.

Accordingly, on July 19, 1999, Qcom sent a letter informing MOT of Qcom's intent to terminate all licenses and rights granted by Qcom to MOT under the PLA. Specifically, the following Qcom patents are mentioned:

5,103,459
5,309,474
5,414,796
5,504,773
5,544,196
5,600,754
5,659,569
5,841,806

Qcom further alleges that after termination, MOT would be unable to continue to manufacture, use import, offer for sale or sell all of its CDMA-based wireless products, including subscriber units (such as the StarTac ST7760 and MicroTAC SC-725), components such as ASIC's, infrastructure equipment (such as cellular base stations) or test equipment previously licensed under the PLA.

The pleading requests a declaration of Qcom's rights under the PLA and its rights and duties after termination of the license to MOT, declaration of the right to terminate MOT's rights (while retaining all licenses and rights granted by MOT to Qcom), declaration that after termination MOT is no longer licensed to use the above numbered patents; declaration that after termination, certain actions by MOT would constitute patent infringement, for attorney fees and costs. Please note that a jury has been demanded.

My comments:

The Telular allegation is very interesting; and it is something which has not been mentioned in the media. As with just about every suit based on a contract, the language in the contract is crucial. The Complaint does not quote the particular language, but the issue will be whether the sublicense language covered after-acquired patents, that is, patent rights which were not in existence at the time of the PLA in 1990 but were acquired or created afterwards.

Second, the specific language of Section 3.01 is also crucial. Does it specifically allow for retention by one party and termination of the other? The fact that one cannot terminate immediately but only upon adequately complaining about a breach and giving some time to cure that breach, may well support the idea that there could be a termination of the breaching party with the non-breaching party retaining rights. My guess is that the contract does not specifically address the matter, since the company is asking for the Court to determine its rights. I can certainly see damages for breach of the contract but terminating only one part of a contract still troubles me. Nevertheless, what is a reasonable result when a party licenses a patent that and then sues for breach of the same patents? I would imagine, under the right circumstances, a court could terminate the benefits to the breaching party. I don't, however, see a pleading based on equitable grounds, purely contractual.

What I would like the thread to address is the nature of the patents received from MOT and whether those patents cover MOT's infringement allegations? The problem is I do not recall the MOT pleading being posted anywhere to compare.

Does anyone know the particular Telular patent involved? I wonder if it only deals with WLL then whether the refusal to license—even if mandatory under the PLA—would cause the right to terminate the entire licensing agreement. The problem we have is that without the contract and all the relevant pleadings, there is not much way to figure out how good the claims are either way. Given the fact that the market has failed to respond in any meaningful way one way or another and brokerage firms have lawyers that look at this stuff, it appears that the street does not think there will be a major negative impact on either of the litigants.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/26/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: cfoe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
 
Re: Assessing Q's valuation now and going forward. I recently read the Gorilla Game (after tThe Innovator's Dilemma, the most useful business/investing book I have read in a long while)and began to reassess my Q holdings. Some thoughts for others' response:

1 - It is very difficult to value a gorilla (or gorilla in development). They almost always look overvalued.
2 - Ever since the ERICY settlement, Q has increasingly exhibited signs of being this type of company. Latest is the recent indications that ERICY appears to be jumping on board with both feet. (Could it be their salvation?)
3 - It is very difficult for the marketplace to put a valuation on what is doesn't know it doesn't know. I am confident that there are applications, products, alliances, etc. in Q's future that I cannot anticipate. And I would think that most investors and probably all but a handful of analysts are no more informed or prescient than I am.
4 - Looking back, Q's management, for whatever mistakes it made along the way, has produced a magnificient result. They have taken a technology and company that was scorned by the mainstream in its industry and produced the world (technology) leader in one of the fastest growing industries.
5 - It is easy to either "cheerlead" or "nay say" any company/stock. Most if not all of us have all done both, with mixed results. I do not want to stay bullish on Q out of some "momemtum."

In summary - I cannot put a specific value on Q; therefore, I cannot say now whether it is over- or under-valued. I can only look at what has been accomplished (much) and the opportunity ahead (very large, probably huge), and trust that the folks who got me this far will continue as they have (bumps along the way and all), until I have evidence they are seriously and permanently off track.

Any feedback will be appreciated.

cfoent



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/27/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: waverider  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13582
 
Ah, so this is where all the intelligence went. I focus on my writing for a few days and find all you guys somewhere else. Lord, it's nice to find a place without all that chatter...

Anyway, I have a few questions about Leap...with the recent agreements with the feds on getting the licences, any thoughts on WHO might be supplying Leap's equipment in the future? Seems like a moot issue since royalities will be paid regardless. I'm also wondering if they might be a take over target soon with all the telcos trying to get more wireless exposure.

QWST has been hammered of late since the market doesn't seem to appreciate their merger move. It's my perception that the street still doesn't understand the transformation in telecommunications and is having a difficult time putting proper valuations on companies involved.

At some point...perhaps 6-10 years?...wireless will be able to match the optic fiber transmission and then what? Do those old dinosaurs finally become extinct?

Rick
<H>
My kids say hi.



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)7/27/1999 7:42:00 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Respond to of 13582
 
Ramsey and others,it is very likely that most of the Wall Street types do not understand how each part of Q contributes to the whole, and are thus underestimating the intrinsic value of the whole company, and equally important, how each component has a synergistic effect on the earnings growth rate. I also agree that the more understood parts of the company (handsets and ASICs) are probably caught up in the hype that contributes to overvaluation of those components, and a stock price that, while not unreasonable, may be where it is for the wrong reasons. I don't know how to evaluate the Motorola litigation, but I do note that the recent high stock price for Motorola might suggest that the analysts who like Motorola are banking on a successful outcome of this litigation for Motorola.