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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Larry Grzemkowski who wrote (8044)7/31/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Respond to of 18928
 
Larry,

This is where I run into problems with AIM, because I'm not that familiar with the mathematics of how do do anything but plain vanilla AIM'ing that came with the spreadsheet given to me. The "what if's" confuse me sometimes.

What I would suggest is this:

When AIM creates a sell recommendation under the "fair value" level, you use this as a mental stop loss order and allow AIM to calculate a new sell and buy levels as if the sell order had been made.

If AIM then suggests another sell under "fair value" at a later point in time, convert the first sell recommendation into a Vealie and recalculate the numbers used in the second sell recommendation as a new mental stop loss number. Continue to do this until the sales are above "fair value", then continue as normal. This should allow you to keep the large number of cheap shares for a good ride into the upper teens while the stop loss mechanism will allow you to sell if we don't get there in a straight line.

(By mental stop loss, I mean if the stock closes below the value, then execute a market order the next day for the number of shares suggested.)

I know this is messy, and only a theory.

If you want to be "automatic" then I would suggest you adjust the portfolio control so that the first sale is at the "fair value" level and continue normally from there, except you ignore all buys before you get a sell. Essentially by opting to do this, you are saying that you ar Mr. Buy and Hold below this level, then AIM'ing above the "fair value" level.

----
Dave



To: Larry Grzemkowski who wrote (8044)8/2/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: LemonHead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18928
 
Hi Larry, Been rolling this post around in my head (LemonHead). I think you have a very intriguing idea. I always like a back up to prove me right. When you take a verifiable evaluation and combine it with a proven method (like AIM) how can you lose? Sort of connect the dots approach.

JZGalt posted his evaluation to the potential for AMKR and you have applied it to AIM logic. Makes sense to me. How about trying some others, are you up to that? How about JBL, how would you set the PC based on current evaluation? Does it matter with AIM?

Keith




To: Larry Grzemkowski who wrote (8044)8/2/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: Jack Jagernauth  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18928
 
Larry,

I bought AMKR at 10-1/2. And lets say I bought 600 shares. This makes my Portfolio Control $6300. Now if we figure fair value and be conservative about it and use current year est. of 0.66 and the 5 year est. earn growth of 25.5, we get fair value of $16.83.

I am sorry, I don't follow; how did you arrive at that figure for fair value....$16.83 ?

Thanks, Jack



To: Larry Grzemkowski who wrote (8044)8/9/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 18928
 
Larry,

Looks like you just passed "fair value" on AMKR today. I see a close at $18.125, so I guess you can turn on you AIM system now. <grin> Glad this worked out.

----
Dave