To: JZGalt who wrote (8112 ) 8/10/1999 7:29:00 PM From: JZGalt Respond to of 18928
Looks like BBRS is calling for trading range of $14-$18, and isn't that a nice compromise on Larry's $16 valuation calculation. July 22, 1999 AMKOR TECHNOLOGY INC - $12 15/16 Valuation Presents Compelling Buying Opportunity for Assembly Leader; Reiterate Buy RatingSummary: ú Assembly industry fundamentals strong and gaining momentum, in our view. ú Well-positioned industry leader, Amkor, trading at about a 40% discount to comparables by our estimates. ú We expect valuation gap to narrow and view current price as compelling opportunity.Key Points: ú In our view, assembly leader, Amkor, is trading at a steep discount to comparables that is not warranted by prevailing fundamentals and Amkor's strong industry position. ú A recent trip to Asia reaffirmed our confidence in the assembly sector and a visit to Amkor's facilities where we met with senior management reaffirmed our confidence the company's strong industry position. ú Despite a recent pre-announcement (see our 6/10/99 First Call), business appears to be recovering at a brisk pace. In particular, the company is adding capacity, particularly to meet demand for advanced package types for which we believe utilization rates are running at or near full capacity. In short, we believe that the company may have guided down expectations prematurely. ú Accordingly, we do not expect the disparity in valuation to persist and believe that the current stock price represents a compelling opportunity. Amkor is trading at 0.9x and 0.8x times our projected 1999 and 2000 revenues vs. 1.6x and 1.2x for the comparables group exclusive of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC). This represents 33-44% discount by our estimates. ú On a price/earnings (p/e) multiple basis Amkor is trading at 21.7x times our projected 1999 EPS and 14.4x times our projected 2000 EPS vs. 33.9x times and 23.8x times, espectively for the comparables group (excluding TSMC). This represents a 36% discount on the p/e for 1999 and a 40% discount on the 2000 p/e by our estimates. ú We anticipate that this disparity in valuation will narrow as the strength of Amkor's business becomes more apparent to investors. We believe that there is the potential for a 20-50% narrowing of the gap in Amkor's valuation over the next several months, implying a trading range between $14 and $18 per share by our estimates. In addition, we believe that this range has the potential to move higher over the next several quarters.ACTION NOW: We expect the valuation gap between Amkor and the other similarly positioned outsource semiconductor and semiconductor related manufacturing companies to narrow and, accordingly, encourage investors to purchase Amkor shares at the current price level. In our opinion, Amkor is the leading player in package and test and we see the company's recent acquisition of K4 and continued build out of existing facilities with advanced technology as parts of a larger strategy to further extend its franchise at the leading edge of assembly. Industry outsourcing fundamentals continue to gain strength and, in our view, Amkor is exceptionally well positioned to leverage the strength of this sector as it builds momentum. We reiterate our Buy rating, accordingly.