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To: PAL who wrote (138256)	8/2/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Of course you could be right, Having said this, do I expect to see the S&P500 break support at 1290 between now and mid-October? A resounding YES. but your analysis used to get where you are going is shall we say interesting. New Jersey has little if any gas tax. CA has some of the highest gas taxes in the country. Two oil refiners in CA are off line at this time due to fires. The effect, less supply in the CA region which only serves to increase prices in the state. You may also want to check out this weekends Barron's magazine. Pg MW14. Will $20 Oil Last Long? Maybe not. It turns out the price spiked partly because some government figures may be faulty. Slippery Numbers Ample supplies belie tight oil inventory data The article notes that:... Most of the net-long positions in the market are held by speculators who aren't directly involved in the underlying commodity. In fact, the speculative net-long positions in the market are held by speculators who aren't directly involved in the underlying commodity. In fact, the speculative net-long positions are currently at their highest level ever, pushing volume and open interest levels in the oil market to new highs. Commercial traders - producers and refiners directly involved in the oil business - in contrast, are net-short, showing that they think prices are too high. Right now, those oil-price bets look pretty slick. In large part due to this article I'll be closing out my position in Diamond Offshore, probably on Monday.

To: PAL who wrote (138256)	8/2/1999 1:00:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

~OT~..<<Peter Lynch says that to know the stock, just look around you. Just use common sense. The same thing can be said about the market...For the first time after many many years, I am concerned, probably just plain scared about the market...>> Paul: There are always some reasons to be skeptical about the market's ability to go higher. Yet, I feel that overall inflation is still under control and we continue to be in a most unusual period of sustained economic growth. Overseas economies are improving. Information technology still increases productivity. Y2K fears are a bit over-rated, IMO. CS First Boston had a good review about this recently. We will continue to experience some significant turbulence in the weeks and months ahead. There still are A LOT of nervous institutional and Mutual Fund Mangers. That will not change. Yet, there continue to be some GREAT buying opportunities and 'careful stock selection' is important. I plan to stay fully invested as we move into the year 2000. Of course I'm in my early 30s and I have a very LONG time horizon for most of my investments. I sleep very well at night having core positions in worldclass growth companies (like DELL and E-Loan) <G>!!. Thanks again for sharing your insights. Good Luck Investing. Regards, Scott