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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2994)	8/12/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: Raptech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

On the Yahoo ORCL thread there was a reasonable question and comment: ORCL is still only 14% off of its 52 wk high. SEBL on the other hand, is 16% off of its 52 week high. Would you rather put your money into a $500M - one product company or a $8.85B multi-product company? There are a lot of companies (including Oracle) that are targeting SEBL's market - how long can they continue their run? This is not my opinion , but a comment from the thread. Rap

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2994)	8/13/1999 10:15:00 AM
From: Bulldozer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

You're too kind TD - but I defer to you oh sage one. :-) BD

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2994)	8/13/1999 10:42:00 AM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 6974

Thanks Dave, What made me nervous in April was that I kept getting indications that there wasn't much pipeline for software. Most at the time thought it must be y2k but in reality the much more significant factor was the massive transition from client-server to web-based IT. Q1 was an ugly period for software companies in general and buying during Q1 took serious guts. It turned out that there just wasn't very much pipeline for client-server software, not software. Caution on client-server stocks has been warranted, IMO. From a macro-basis, I think it was crazy to bet AGAINST multiple contraction in client-server software stocks for the same reason as what happened to IT services stocks. Same transition in IT services to web-based installations but some individual companies were clearly poised to beat their numbers and continue to do so while most others keep blowing up. However, multiple contraction has hit all the existing companies, even those that executed and beat their numbers. Now the front-office space doesn't have nearly the issue because there is little saturation of the front-office. However, most of the companies providing the software are still caught in transition. It really came down to your conviction in Siebel management and their sales execution of closing on their huge pipeline. They kept saying they weren't going to be affected and that the pipeline was there and then there was that feud over who is actually web-based and who isn't yadda yadda yadda. To this day, I have no idea if Siebel is somehow stuffing itself Infromix-style or if its numbers are clean. All I know is that SEBL puts up impressive sales and earnings every quarter, estimates go up every 90 days, and the stock deserves to be where it is... My focus just continues to be on ecommerce based software (BVSN, VIGN, ARBA, CMDX, even MERQ in testing ecommerce installations) and communications software (INSS, MUSE, recent add VNWK). No client-server issues here, in some cases significantly better business models and solid correlation to internet growth. Automating customer support is clearly a beneficiary of the internet as more self-serviced ecommerce is done so I really have no business NOT focusing on this group. My one overhanging issue with Siebel is the cost of their software. How are they going to maintain their prices? I am willing to overlook this while saturation is still so low but at some point, this is going to be the issue with this company. What are your thoughts?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2994)	8/18/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

for what it's worth ... Fortune August 18, 1999 pathfinder.com

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2994)	8/24/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6974

Trader Dave: 2) The street has no idea how much larger the front office is than the erp market. IMO, it's about six times larger, but I'm seeing some evidence that those figures are small. I've stayed away from SEBL thus far for lack of a compelling reason to get in. I'm not aware of the 6x and maybe larger future, would you please explain why it will be that much larger than ERP, and point me to the evidence you are seeing?