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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: add who wrote (13694)	8/12/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: Tickertype	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

All: On the subject of the $75 million, here are Lev's exact words, pauses, grunts, and all. Now Larry can interpret them as meaning they will only sell half of that amount, others can interpret them as they wish. My interpretation is that Lev's being conservative. When the subject came up the first time: "We think we can achieve production capacities on an annualized basis within the next twelve months in excess of seventyfive million dollars. When we hit that mark depends on yield management,...you know, some equipment coming in...several million dollars worth of equipment arriving which has been on order for some time is now arriving, and...and...customer's willingness to take it, of course. But I think we can hit targets of some seventy million dollars..seventysix million dollars plus...at an annualized rate, sometime in the next twelve months." The second time it came up: "I want to be careful that everyone understands... we anticipate passing through a seventy million dollar sales rate, and the sales rate..you know..month to month basis...I'm not saying we're gonna sell seventy million in the next twelve months.......and you know, I'm saying that we're gonna pass through, we hope to pass through that right in the next twelve months and go far, far beyond it. We... anticipate being able to..with about, uh.. with the money coming in from the IDB we'll be able to bring the plan up beyond the seventysix million dollars sales rate. Uh, with another twenty million gross from the IDB...I mean twenty million dollars gross sales, eleven million of it from our own pockets, we'll be able to pass through twohundred and fifty million dollar sales rate, we anticipate." On the subject of the third assembly line: "The third assembly machine should be there in the next week or two. It's been bought off and I think it's on it's way..it's not really vital right now but it will be, hopefully, in the next month..or two..or three." Question: About the orders to Hanil that were announced a couple of months ago, any ideas to what the revenue is that you're expecting to receive there? "Well, it's uh...discounting just to be conservative... discounting what their sales forecasts are, we're putting in our plan and anticipate being able to ship around eighteen million dollars worth of product to them. Their requirements anticipate more than that, but that's what I'm putting in my plan." Would that be over, say, roughly over the next year or so? "Yes" Thought I'd throw in those other items too, as they've already been the subject of some discussion. - T -

To: add who wrote (13694)	8/13/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: Larry Brubaker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

<<At least you can't claim they have no product to sell anymore. And even you admit to $38 Million for the next year.>> Add, when I claimed VLNC had no product for sale, I simply was repeating the official statements of the company. At the time, there were no products for sale and no products were sold. My comment about $38 million in revenue over the next 12 months also directly relates to company statements. As Lev said (and as confirmed by Tickertype's transcript), they expect to have the capacity to support an annual sales rate of $76 million within the next 12 months. He did not project $76 million in revenue over the next 12 months (as Tickertype's transcript confirms). The math is pretty simple. $76 million in annual sales equates to about $6 million per month. Starting at 0 sales and assuming a constant ramp up to $6 million per month results in $39 million in sales over the next 12 months. So, assuming Lev's forecast is correct, I think my $38 million projection is a reasonable estimate of revenue for the next 12 months. If Lev's forecast is conservative, $38 million might be a few million too low. If it is optimistic, $38 million might be too high. If you think I am too conservative, you can add the $233,000 of revenue they earned last quarter. I don't see why I catch all this flack from you guys for simply reminding this thread what the company actually says. My reminders over the last year have all turned out to be correct, while all of the predictions of imminent contracts, comments about dated attorney disclaimers, and billion dollar revenue projections have been proven to be incorrect time after time. I said last November that Lev's refusal to acknowledge they were sending production samples to OEM's was a red flag. This thread claimed major purchase orders were imminent. I said in December that the SEC filings indicated VLNC was nowhere close to mass production. This thread claimed the SEC filings were dated attorney disclaimers and I was rowing with one oar. I challenged FMK's projections of billions of annual revenue and this thread continued to ridicule. Pretty much every thing I have said has been proven to be 100% correct. But all I hear from this thread is crap. So be it. But the best measure of who has been correct is the stock price. I don't think too many people are worried about being able to buy the stock while it is still in single digits, as Fred repeatedly urged us to do before it is too late.