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Technology Stocks : WebTrends Corporation [WEBT] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paper man who wrote (510)	8/17/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 614

I have an interesting potential 'short covering rally' to share. 2 weeks ago, Marketwatch did an article on IPO lock up shares, and how their expiration dates attract opportunist short sellers. Often this practice does work, however here is the exception that ruins the rule. Marketwatch listed amoung a 2 dozen other stocks Webtrends, or WEBT. Now granted WEBT will be 6 months from it's 02/19 IPO this week, and granted registered shares will be allowed to be sold with no additional restrictions, but here's what a little DD has turned up. These restricted shares are only being held by 3 people, 2 are founders with most of the shares, and 1 is a board member with a small amount. All these people have been selling many non-restricted shares that has reduced the insider holding of this company from 75% to nearly 50% now. These guys have already cashed in at much higher prices around $60 (stock now at $30 from $84 high and $22 IPO). If you put a simple call into Investor Relations at WEBT, they will emphatically tell you that these 3 little pigs have stated that they have no intention of selling any of their restricted shares when they become tenable this week, and a quick check at the SEC will show that no 144 or S4's have been filed. So basically, you have a bunch of shorts pushing this stock down under the impression that these restricted shares will be sold, when in FACT they won't be for quite a while. WEBT is a very successful company that will continue to grow and be profitable over the coming year, and with 6 strong buys from analysts with a target price of $60, it's unlikely it will lose support here. Bottom line is, when these shorts realize they can't rattle this cage, they will cover and move on, creating a long rally in this thin float stock that should hold thru earnings season which is should prove to be very good for WEBT. I would try to long this stock over the the coming week as the shorts push it down to the high 20's. I expect to be back in the high 30's within weeks when these bozo's realize their short efforts just won't work on this stock.