To: Pruguy who wrote (29644 ) 8/20/1999 6:41:00 PM From: mact Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
not to rehash old tunes from the past...but the threats i have mentioned in the past are still quite real and pertinent. 11:23 ET ****** America Online (AOL) 95 7/16 -9/16: When you're a top tech firm, the threats never stop coming. That's been the case for Microsoft (MSFT) for years, and in the past few years it has become true of America Online (AOL) as well. The latest threat to AOL is detailed in a Merrill Lynch research note about Best Buy. Merrill notes that the new subsidized PC program at Best Buy has attracted 100,000 takers in just four weeks. The program offers subsidies for PC buyers that increase as the buyer increases his commitment to a Prodigy contract (PRGY). The threat to AOL is that 60% of those surveyed after buying a subsidized PC had cancelled an existing ISP service within a week of signing their Prodigy agreements. Since AOL is the largest ISP, it has the most to lose if cancellations of existing services pick up. Readers may think that 100,000 is a pretty small number, and they would be right in the sense that 60% of 100,000 is 60,000 and only some fraction of that 60,000 were actually signed up for AOL -- the ultimate number of AOL cancellations is probably very small relative to its base. But Merrill claims that seasonally adjusted and annualized, that 100,000 could be 3 mln, a much more threatening number. The annualizing part of this calculation is easy -- it's just 12 times the monthly number, or 1.2 mln. Seasonal adjustment is a trickier issue -- there's not much history on ISP seasonal patterns, and there's even less history on how seasonal patterns of a retail offering of low-priced PCs with ISP contracts. Merrill's assumption is that summer is slow for ISPs and that the pace will pick up, but it may be that an initial rush to buy led to a surge in sales and that the monthly pace will not hit 100,000 again in the next 12 months. But perhaps an even more important point, and one that Merrill aludes to, is that AOL has proven to be very nimble when responding to past challenges (that is why AOL, like MSFT, is a tech leader). Merrill suggests that AOL will do a deal with BBY. Whether or not there's an AOL/BBY deal in the future, it is a good bet that AOL is busy with some sort of response to this threat. They have responded to every threat in the past. - GJ