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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (39980)	9/7/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice, What happens when the Q comes out and states they have solved the current capacity issues RE handsets!? <VBG> MileHigh

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (39980)	9/7/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice: Although I agree with your year end 2000 estimates for the number of CDMA subs, I think your estimate for the end of 1999 is a bit low. This could seriously undermine QCOM's growth rate for next year. <gg> Didn't Lehman come out and announce that 13 million new CDMA subs were added in the 3rd quarter? Since the CDG reported over 33 million subs at the end of June, that would push the total number of subs to 46 million by the end of September. Since the 4th quarter is usually a blowout, I would expect to see at least another 13 million added by the end of 1999. That would project a total of 61 million CDMA subs by the end of the year. With Mexico, Australia, and Brazil being added to the list of substantial CDMA markets for next year (Korea, Hong Kong, the US, Canada, and Japan) CDMA should continue to add 15 million new customers per quarter next year to a total of 120 million subs by the end of next year. With the turnover in handsets beginning to accelerate next year, the momentum in phone sales should begin to significantly outperform the number of new customers. Hence, the number of new CDMA subs will be a conservative estimate for the number of new handsets sold each year. I think this will drive the book to bill ratio for QCOM's MSM ASICs significantly higher. What happens when the PC industry wants to start putting CDMA chips into every computer with call forwarding to your handset? 3G aside, no one has even used their imagination for the implications of a universal wireless standard that has been locked up by CDMA.