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To: gdichaz who wrote (6222)9/12/1999 5:04:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Cha2,

For the moment (a very long moment) I believe Gemstar will have to rely on television. It's difficult for most of us overactive computer users to keep in perspective that only half of U. S. homes have a computer and that only half of those homes have Internet access. And the U. S. is way ahead of every other part of the world.

I also believe that convergence of television and computers is a very long way off, so far off that it's too early to build investment models around convergence.

Just my opinion.

--Mike Buckley



To: gdichaz who wrote (6222)9/12/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: NY Stew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Chaz,

: Curious if Gemstar has a way to be a major force in the future of computers as a major way to view shows with choices unavailable in broadcast TV.
Sometime won't we watch shows on some appliance that is more computer oriented and internet based than cable or broadcast?


This area is where Gemstar has one of the strongest barriers to entry with its single user-interface for multiple sourced data as witnessed in the MS and AOL agreements.

George Gilder has been talking about the "death of TV" for a decade now. He, is of course, ahead - in this case I suspect way ahead - of his time - if not out and out wrong on that.

Perhaps TV as we know it but not of tele-vision. This will be an evolutionary process that may be decades in the making. There is a window of opportunity in this transition for those with the enabling technology.

But does Gemstar rely on TV's survival as the "couch potato" fixation vs those who surf the net? Know that MSFT and others are betting on TV as the interactive appliance of choice for most of us. But I for one use my computer as my source and use TV for sports and not much else these days.

Gemstar has had greater success partnering with the new media than with the old. By the latter I specifically mean the cable cartel.
Microsoft has the Gemstar technology in the PC operating system for Win98 and upgrades. A digital or analog tuner is needed for activation.

AOL and Microsoft will come out in 2000 with enhanced TV and have their agenda built into the retailed STBs or the TV itself. The content navigation guides will be Gemstar licensed. It appears to me that Henry is working both sides of the convergent equation.

Regards
Stew