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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (52867)	10/12/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, we're now under the magic number for oil stocks (300), right?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (52867)	10/12/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

WOW - if crude is down 7 Million boe - that's incredible... Don't see many draws like that... we've spiked on 3 M boe draw downs; but.... earnings season is staring us in the face... so the "deserved" bounce will be in crude prices - and perhaps not in OSX stocks. Breaking 300M boe in domestic storage is a biggie. Sub 280 M boe and we see $30 crude at the peak imho... Quite simple actually; demand is growing and is very likely to surprise to the upside. Supply trend is strongly down; OPEC is expected to cheat, or to increase production; so continued good compliance will surprise to the upside as well. What many have pointed out is the overall market weakness and potential blow off. Y2K is still looming out there and October brings more "tricks than treats" for the market... I wish the market would just blow off, right as the OSX reports earnings... let's get this over with... it would fit GaryB's final EW's projections well. Actually; late yesterday and today - I sold lots & lots of stock...took that margined leveraged money & ran... - there; now are you happy GaryB (VBG) ? Trimmed "ALL" the margin away and sold off all but core positions and "rotated" into the stocks that I think never really outran their fundamentals; and will best and most immediately benefit from this 7 M boe drawdown... the E&P's - and small & micro caps once again are going to have their day in the sun. Imho, they have been killed here; irrationally so. Loaded RRC today @ $3 7/8ths - 15/16ths. I got my CRK back yesterday and bought a real nice position in MHR that is one of the most leveraged stocks to upside in commodity prices and also has perhaps the most leveraged Cap Ex spending program over the next few months. They've dramatically ramped up their cap ex spending - to take advantage of dayrates and their recent acquisitions. JQP - if you like production growth & long lived reserve bases - do the "DD" on MHR... this one is a winner... loaded at $3. Deutsche Bank has a real nice analyst report out with a $6 price target and a "Strong Buy" - which this is beyond a strong buy here... ONEOK is their partner ; ZERO risk on an insolvency etc... this is a growth story that has all the capitalization they need to exploit tremendous reserve growth. Bought a small basket of a few other small cap E&P's as well... to compliment a core position in UPR OEI PXD. I think they are under the radar screen here - oversold, bottomed and will not sell off further in sympathy to the OSX if we see an Earnings related selloff there. I think the oversold E&P's move positively off of the incredibly positive API drawdowns and the overall positive commodity fundamentals. JimL - from Deutsche Banks's E&P coverage; you'll be happy to hear that the 3 cheapest E&P's from a % of NAV basis are: 1. APC 2. RRC 3. MHR from a debt & reserve life adjusted multiple of 2000 cfps: 1. RRC tied with VPI 2. MHR * APC is the most expensive stock from this metric however, but APC has never been traded on its cfps multiple.MHR is like a small, young version of APC potentially (VBG)... get 'em while they're young (VBG) and cheap... We faded on the buying interest today... with earnings starting - don't see much buying support out there... good time to be nimble. I'd expect another visit from the short sellers en masse~ if we see volume and buying taper off here and I think we are seeing just that... GaryB... you may be "nailing" this one. So; I took some money & ran... or, rotated into some plays that I think have bottomed and are under the OSX selloff radar screen potentially. Still holding my core positions - but trimmed some and OFF MARGIN... I want some buying power here... CRK @ $3 3/8ths, RRC $3 7/8ths , MHR $3 ?~?~? - these are at ludicrous price levels given commodity prices imho... gotta be a buyer here; but also have the funds to chase 'em as low as the market wants to take them here... good luck PS - Mike Happel; I'd agree with marcC on GLBL & HAL, I'd add MDR in service stocks for the 3 least risk - most upside choices. Drillers have popped nicely here; RIG the least so - would probably be the most undervalued from a historic and a longterm forward looking basis. Grabbing some UTI, NBR on dips, or ESV RDC FLC - would give you the best leverage to the OSX run... NBR & SDC on dips for the longterm offer a bit of a discount given their intnl exposure which is overly discounted here nearterm if you're thinking longer term... but, for short term trading... GLBL HAL & land/jack up drillers on dips look hard to beat... unless of course you'd care to dip a toe into the E&P arena (VBG)... couple of small caps - RRC here, little CRK on a dip , MHR ?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (52867)	10/12/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: Brent Hogenson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

API's - What's going on? How can we be up 1 million barrels last week and down 7 million barrels this week? It seems like we should be drawing down 3 million barrels a week, not having these wide variances. Is somebody higher up in the food chain pulling some strings and making a killing? I normally don't believe in conspiracy theories but something just doesn't seem right. If America is using approximately 25% of the world's daily supply, it stands to reason that we should be getting 25% of the world's draw down. If demand is exceeding supply by 2 million barrels a day this quarter, API's should be down 3.5 million barrels each and every week (500,000 * 7). If the gap between supply and demand raises to 3 or 4 million barrels a day, I don't know what to say except HOW CAN IT??!! How many weeks can go by with API draw downs of 5-7 million each and every week. Drilling budgets have to be raised in a big way and soon! I can't stop thinking now is the time to buy absolutely everything you can get your hands on. Is there some flaw in my thinking? Somebody??? Anybody???