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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim who wrote (8917)	10/13/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

<<...the level of anxiety increasing closer to next January, don't you feel that there was much more "anxiety" earlier in the year? Why do you feel the this anxiety was there then, has dropped off, and will ramp up again before January. I think it is a straight line except for the "curiousity" on New Years Eve....>> This is my perspective, too, Jim; but I didn't want to put it out with my question at Message 11519892 so that responses would not be influenced in any way. Back around the turn of 1999, almost everyone I corresponded with who was either up to their armpits in Y2k work, or senior management at a company with a Y2k project in progress, had a view along the lines of (paraphrasing loosely) "this is going to be the royal pits" and "we're preparing for all hel! to break loose". The only light at the end of the tunnel appeared to be the Y2k train screaming down on them. And many talked about the slow build-up to a frenzied panic by the general population as they became more aware of the issue. Stock market collapse, $2,000/ounce gold, runs on the banks, etc.; much of it expected to be in full swing by third quarter 1999. Now, every meeting I go to the same IS people and members of executive management who used to have beads of sweat on thier faces are saying (loosely paraphrased) "We're all ready; bring it on!" and the general population seems to be enjoying life just fine in "no worries"-mode. We truly couldn't be happier with the way the Y2k project turned out at our organization. Neither could the vast majority of the other companies I correspond with. Doesn't mean nobody thinks some things won't go wrong or that the economy won't continue to cycle; as they will, no doubt. Just that things, overall, look pretty good from the perspective of many people who have spent huge amounts of time and money working on the problem. Best. ...Tim

To: Jim who wrote (8917)	10/13/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: Lane3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

So, Jim, you plan on spending New Years in Las Vegas. That makes you not only a polly, but a cocky polly. <g> In terms of Y2K risk, that's the next closest thing to being in an airplane over Indonesia. >>>With regard to your second point about the level of anxiety increasing closer to next January, don't you feel that there was much more "anxiety" earlier in the year? Why do you feel the this anxiety was there then, has dropped off, and will ramp up again before January.<<< I didn't get into this issue until this past July, so I didn't personally observe the anxiety level earlier in the year. Still, I think a lull around this time is natural. Part of the reason is what I was saying earlier about people having already decided what they're going to do or not do. There's a lot of stress associated with making big decisions. There's research to do and the stress of fitting the effort in between making a deal at work and getting the kids to the orthodontist. There's debate and assessment over something that's potentially life threatening. For at least half the population (according to Myers-Briggs, if I recall correctly), the anxiety of making the decision is relieved with the decision. That's a substantial reduction in total anxiety. Even if one is still anxious about Y2K itself, at least the collateral anxiety of making a decision and completing a plan is over. Another factor is that, as you say, many have decided that it's not going to be as big a deal as some had earlier suggested. There seems to be less support for a scenario of massive infrastructure failure, at least in North America, so the risk is perceived to be more of a business risk than a life-and-death risk. While the potential of a recession produces anxiety, it's not the intense anxiety you get with fears of marauding gangs of crazed thugs who will kill you for your peanut butter and bottled water. But what do I know... Karen

To: Jim who wrote (8917)	10/14/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: Lane3	Respond to of 9818

Jim, happened upon CBS MarketWatch's answer to your question. The link points to more detail about the survey. Karen Not much ado on millennium Half of public isn't worried about New Year's, poll shows By David Callaway, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:01 PM ET Oct 13, 1999 NewsWatch SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- What year 2000 problem? Despite years of hand-wringing and scare-mongering about the potential problems the turnover into the new millennium will cause in the world's computer systems, almost half of the American public believes there will be no problems at all on the arrival of Jan. 1, 2000, according to a new CBS.MarketWatch.com poll. About 82 percent of those surveyed think there will be only minor -- if any -- problems with computers. And a solid 60 percent aren't doing anything in advance to their personal computers to prepare for Y2K, according to the poll by CBS MarketWatch (MKTW: news, msgs). See poll results. The results show that the public has become increasingly convinced that government and corporate attempts to prevent a technological Armageddon have succeeded and that there's nothing to worry about. Some computer users, however, think the public's mood could change a bit as New Year's Eve approaches. "You know what? I'm still going to wait and not buy my new computer until January," said Rob Schumacher, chief strategist for the Van Kampen Funds, which manages about $70 billion in assets. The telephone poll of 1,652 adults, conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, also provides a look at Main Street attitudes toward Internet holiday shopping, online investing, the economy and next year's presidential election. Among its findings, the survey showed Americans are increasingly relaxed about potential problems with Y2K and that few are taking any sort of precautions. Only 14 percent of those polled think there will be major problems, down from 34 percent in a December 1998 poll by CNN/Gallup/USA Today. Forty-eight percent see absolutely no problems at all resulting from the change, up from 36 percent in July. Sixty-four percent of adults are doing nothing to prepare for the millennium while those that are preparing aren't going beyond stocking up on food and water, or taking extra cash out of the bank, according to the poll. Among computer users, 74 percent think their computers will be unaffected by the changeover, up from 61 percent in January. Only 7 percent think there will be serious effects. Schumacher said he expects public concern to pick up, however, because more and more companies are canceling end of year holidays for their employees. That could lead to a reassessment of the situation by employees as they realize they will be at work or on call when the millennium turns, he said. cbs.marketwatch.com