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To: Dataminer1 who wrote (8952)	10/18/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: Bernie Goldberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi, It is always amazing to me how smart you guys are in looking at histories. Jack looks at a stock that he could have started with zero cash reserve. What is really fun is to write down down some of the sage forecasts that are made, and take a look at them 6 months down the road. People trying to forecast the future aren't near as smart as the folks trying to see how smart they could have been looking at a chart that is 6 months old. My brother-in-law is heavily involved in a gas drilling company in California. He has been trying to get my wife and me to put some $$ for years. Three and half months ago June 28th my wife succumbed. She bought 5000 shares at 45 cents each. Today it stands at $2.00. That's pretty close to 350% in 3 1/2 months. Now if only had sold everything else I owned and put it all into TRIL. Why I could have written a book called How to Make over Two Million in Less than Four Months. Don't get me wrong. I don't object to the nice profit my wife has made this Summer. She also realizes how lucky she has been. That is why we are now turning TRIL over to AIM. Her brother is convinced we are insane. After all it is going all the way to at least $11. Well, just in case he is wrong, AIM will act as our safety cushion. The world is full of "would'a, should'a, could'as. If every one had 20/20 foresight we wouldn't be writing posts on SI we'd be out on the South Pacific some where drinking Pina Coladas, since we all would have made a million even faster than Mr. Lichello. Bernie

To: Dataminer1 who wrote (8952)	10/18/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: Jack Jagernauth	Respond to of 18928

Hi D1, Those are interesting numbers on internet IPO's. I don't know if I have the guts to plunk down money on IPO's. Here are a couple more observations I made regarding PCA. When I initially looked at the price chart of CAE.TO, I thought that there would have been more AIM trades than I actually got when I ran PCA. There are two things about that: 1. Just looking at a price chart could be deceiving. 2. The simulation is based on weekly close, so it does not take into account the weekly hi/lo range to determine whether or not there would have been a trade. For stocks that I am currently tracking with manual input into Newport, I look at the hi/lo for the week to see if the range would have triggered a trade. TWE is interesting in that regard. Like you said, it's not perfect; however, I feel that PCA provides one with an excellent sense for how AIM might have handled a particular stock over a given time period, the number of trades that are likely to occur, the possible returns, what buy/sell safe settings might be appropriate for that particular stock or fund, etc. Regards, Jack