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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (32901)	10/20/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tony, thanks for the glimmer of hope. :) The market probably won't be so analytic, judging from Globex right now. I can hear them now " IBM hit by Y2K and they expect it to continue in 2000". Gottfried PS: we really need that "groan" emoticon.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (32901)	10/20/1999 8:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Is it real or overbooking? One forecaster maintains 'cautious pessimism' A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. CUPERTINO, Calif.--Don't pop the cork and celebrate the 1999 chip recovery just yet, said Advanced Forecasting Inc., an industry research firm here that's maintaining "cautious pessimism" in its outlook until next month. The semiconductor forecasting company today warned that double-booking of products could come back to bite chip suppliers and capital equipment houses by tricking them into believing a long, strong recovery is underway. Advanced Forecasting said it will maintaining a position of "cautious pessimism," but it is now warning clients that the industry may be on the verge of yet another downturn. "Our quantitative models continue to provide indications that are contrary to what most semiconductor industry analysts are calling for in the short term future," said Moshe Handelsman, president of AFI. He added that November's measurements of the key economic factors behind his company's forecasting model will be crucial as to whether or not AFI issues a special alert to clients. "The present upturn looks strong because it is being compared to the deep recession of 1998," Handelsman said. "Some of the good feeling attributable to the mushrooming backlog may be unfounded if that backlog is based on double bookings." Handelsman noted that overbookings is both a symptom and a cause of the IC industry's inability to forecast demand for products. He said buyers often overbook because there are no penalties for cancellations. Like a number of market researchers, Advanced Forecasting Inc. has promoted its ability to detect changes in the marketplace. But the company said it bases forecasts on turning points in directions. "We have called 90% of the IC industry turning points since 1986--and withoutretroactive modifications of our forecasts," said Patrick Driscoll, vice president of sales and marketing at AFI. "It appears there is a good chance we may be informing our clients of another turn." "One major IC vendor told us recently that they receive forecasts from some of their customers that are wrong by as much as 200%," Driscoll said. "That is nothing short of horrible and yet not uncommon." AFI's Handelsman said a forecast of an absolute annual growth rate can by itself be misleading. "If, as part of the overall growth there is an unanticipated downturn, then the annual growth rate is meaningless," he stated. Handelsman believes too many IC industry forecasts are wrong because they are based on opinions. "We are maintaining--cautious pessimism--because our quantitative models are indicating that things may not be as rosy as many think," he cautioned. 204.247.196.14