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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/5/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: rlev	Respond to of 25960

Ok ... put me down for Sept 15 2000

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/5/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Managing Risk in Cymer Options. What to do when a stock like Cymer blows past the strike price. Right about now some are saying writing options (covered calls) against Cymer is a bad deal. It doesn't have to be . For an example lets say that an investor invested $10,000 in Cymer stock when it was trading at 30 per share and then wrote the covered calls for a Nov. 35 strike and got 3 points for them. The $10,000 investment would have resulted in 333 shares being purchased. Three contracts at 3 would have netted an additional $900 in income. So the position would have been called out at $10,500 plus $900 in call premium., for a return of $11,400. (all of this about 30 days or less) Now Cymer is trading at $45.00 per share. And for purpose of the example lets say that Cymer finishes two weeks from now at $45.00 per share. I would do the following take the $10,500 (the call out price) and the Monday after options close out buy back 10,500 worth of CYMER stock. (10,500 divided by $45.00 per share will result in 233 shares being purchased. So your CYMER holdings will now be 233 shares plus the 33 shares from the initial purchase. (266 total shares). Now write the Dec 50's for whatever premium is available. Cymer may very well go into a trading range of 40 to 50 for a few months, during which time I will be able to keep the call premium. The advantage of this is that the capital at risk did not change and if you are called out again another 15% monthly gain will result. I do this with ten stocks on a monthly basis.Being called out is just part of the business. Usually I write covered call on a little more than half of my portfolio.I frequently go though three or four month periods where very little gets called out. This strategy would be suitable for everyone except Curlton, who has a different viewpoint. It has been my viewpoint that almost any strategy will work if it is applied consistently over any protracted period of time. Lets hope that the MSFT situation does not trash the tech sector next week. Jerome

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/6/1999 1:12:00 AM
From: Doug B.	Respond to of 25960

Sorry, my entry was buried in this post: Message 11782828

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/6/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: ScotMcI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

If I had any ability whatsoever to predict the stock's price, I wouldn't have been holding it during the plunge era. So, here's the best guess of a bad guesser: August 1, 2000.

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/6/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome, I do not think that CYMI will reach $100 next year. Actually, my best guess for the top is between $80 to $85 sometime in June. I think that $100 may have to wait longer than the next 18 months. But then, I did not think that CYMI should have gotten under $13 two years ago, so just as we got over pessimism, we may get over exuberance. If the same measure applies, then, since the actual low was half my target, the actual high might be double (VBG). Zeev

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/6/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: Tsaen Wang	Respond to of 25960

My price target is actually $75 for next year. But would take $100 anytime, say Nov 21.

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/7/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: Douglas Rhodes	Respond to of 25960

August 5 2000. Shortly after the quarterly report.

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/7/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Darryl Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome, I was somewhat reluctant to respond because I didn't feel Cymer would hit $100 in 2000. I do think it will achieve this in 2001. Since Zeev has stuck his neck out first, I feel safe to express my opinion: We will end this year in the $50-$55 range. First quarter we will move to $70-$75. Second quarter we will move to $85. We will drop slightly during the 3rd qtr (summer slowdown for techs). We will pop back to $85-$90 in the 4th qtr. Will hit $100 in the 1st qtr of 2001. Of course, if you look back at some of my previous predictions, you will probably go "Bwaahaahaahaahaahaa." However, for the sake of this contest, I will say December 21st, ie, Christmas will come a little early.

To: Jerome who wrote (23551)	11/8/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: RobQ	Respond to of 25960

Caling out the lurkers, eh, Jerome? Ok, I guess I owe you guys something. However this contest, as a tribute to one's ability to "time the market" is not what I had in mind for my first post! I don't have that ability, but will join in just for fun. Besides, I live in San Diego and may get to meet some of you guys who's expertise I've learned from, admired, and even profited from (lately)at a shareholders meeting one day. You'll recognize me there as the one with the brown nose <g>. Anyway, here goes: Split 2 for 1 march 25th so we wont reach 100, but the split shares will reach 50 on may 20th, 2000. CYMER'S got the rights to the newest laser lights! -Robq