Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rascal who wrote (16811)	11/6/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: JayPC	Respond to of 29970

Hi Rascal As we've said on this thread many times, the single largest factor holding up @HOME's subs # is the install requirements. An AOL purchase of @HOME would have ZERO effect on @HOME's subscription rate. It would continue to have ZERO effect for at least the next 3 years. @HOME can wait. Regards Jay

To: Rascal who wrote (16811)	11/6/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: gpowell	Respond to of 29970

Just to be clear, I believe EDavies meant to say: "21 million homes passed by upgraded cable". The home is not wired until after you sign up for the service. The wiring can take 10's of minutes to one hour or more. Modem and software installation takes an additional hour or two. Some data to get you started with your questions. Message 11646078 Message 11646276 Message 11646475 Message 11646271 N. American growth (numbers are in millions): MSO, Last Mile Data Subscriber Data Homes Homes Otr/Qtr % Subs Qtr/Qtr <penetration> Revenue Quarter Served Upgraded Inc upgraded # Inc rate Q/Q Derived Q1 - 98 50 5.7 11.40% 0.09 1.58% 4.16 Q2 - 98 57 7.9 38.60% 13.86% 0.15 63.33% 1.86% 17.85% 6.79 Q3 - 98 57 10 26.58% 17.54% 0.21 42.86% 2.10% 12.86% 9.7 Q4 - 98 57 13.2 32.00% 23.16% 0.33 57.62% 2.51% 19.41% 15.29 Q1 - 99 58 15 13.64% 25.86% 0.46 38.97% 3.07% 22.30% 21.25 Q2 - 99 58 17 13.33% 29.31% 0.62 34.78% 3.65% 18.93% 28.64 Q3 - 99 59 20 17.65% 33.90% 0.82 32.26% 4.10% 12.42% 37.88 projections Q4 - 99 59 23 15.00% 38.98% 1.12 36.59% 4.87% 18.77% 51.74 Q1 - 00 59 26 13.04% 44.07% 1.52 35.71% 5.85% 20.05% 70.22 Q2 - 00 59 29 11.54% 49.15% 2.05 34.87% 7.07% 20.92% 94.71 Q3 - 00 59 32 10.34% 54.24% 2.76 34.63% 8.63% 22.01% 127.51 Q4 - 00 59 35 9.38% 59.32% 3.72 34.78% 10.63% 23.23% 171.86

To: Rascal who wrote (16811)	11/6/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Interesting, I posted my first reply in fixed font and then edited it and the font changed. In edit mode we don't have the ability to set the font. Here's the table again: N. American growth: (all numbers are millions) MSO, Last Mile Data Subscriber Data Homes Homes Otr/Qtr % Subs Qtr/Qtr <penetration> Revenue Quarter Served Upgraded Inc upgraded # Inc rate Q/Q Derived Q1 - 98 50 5.7 11.40% 0.09 1.58% 4.16 Q2 - 98 57 7.9 38.60% 13.86% 0.15 63.33% 1.86% 17.85% 6.79 Q3 - 98 57 10 26.58% 17.54% 0.21 42.86% 2.10% 12.86% 9.7 Q4 - 98 57 13.2 32.00% 23.16% 0.33 57.62% 2.51% 19.41% 15.29 Q1 - 99 58 15 13.64% 25.86% 0.46 38.97% 3.07% 22.30% 21.25 Q2 - 99 58 17 13.33% 29.31% 0.62 34.78% 3.65% 18.93% 28.64 Q3 - 99 59 20 17.65% 33.90% 0.82 32.26% 4.10% 12.42% 37.88 projections Q4 - 99 59 23 15.00% 38.98% 1.12 36.59% 4.87% 18.77% 51.74 Q1 - 00 59 26 13.04% 44.07% 1.52 35.71% 5.85% 20.05% 70.22 Q2 - 00 59 29 11.54% 49.15% 2.05 34.87% 7.07% 20.92% 94.71 Q3 - 00 59 32 10.34% 54.24% 2.76 34.63% 8.63% 22.01% 127.51 Q4 - 00 59 35 9.38% 59.32% 3.72 34.78% 10.63% 23.23% 171.86

To: Rascal who wrote (16811)	11/7/1999 4:30:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Questions that go right to the heart of things. No easy answers but its good to be reminded of the big picture now and then. of the 20 million remaing households .. how many are using dial-up? I'm guessing internet use in North America is roughly 50%. It was 30% about a year ago and obviously is trending to 90%. Dial up is almost all of that right now, with total broadband being somewhere in the 5% domain. What is excite @home doing to: #1 convert the dial-ups to cable braodband Roll them trucks baby. Right now its as simple as that. They can only do the installs so fast. When self install comes (~6months away) we will see what the level of demand truely is. My feel is that if people could do a no hassle signup now broadband (cable + dsl) penetration would be roughly 10-15% of all homes (something like 1/4 of all internet users). It is twice as expensive after all. After that its about making broadband have enough uses to make it worth the extra money. People have to come to see broadband as essential to daily life. Hopefully Excite will lend a hand here, but content creaters all over the globe will be helping too. We are all waiting for the first killer app to hit: Video on Demand. No more movie rentals. #2 educate the non-users to the point where they will buy internet/broadband The major push here from Excite@home is to disguise broadband internet in a form that people will accept. They call it "Interactive Television". The computer is now a set top box and the monitor is a television set. Presumably the software will be written to satisfy the needs of the non-technically minded. Excite is also providing internet service (dial-up at the moment) for video game stations. Broadband is obviously next. Your next questions were because of my own lack of precision in terminology. The current penetration is ~1/20, but its very hard to read anything useful into that for the long term because of the limitation in installation rate. I'll guarantee you this: In 20 years what we call "broadband" internet will be as widely used as color television is today. Dial-up will be as common as the rotary telephone. Ever seen one of those? Eric