re: Project Oxygen - no talk of a glut here
It's interesting to follow the projections of ventures like Oxygen (Project Oxygen, oxygen.org ), in the presence of unyielding advancements in photonics and Internet technologies. The continuing theme, not only by O2 but by many similar long term projectors, seems to be to consistently understate future goals by some wide margin, which, granted, can only be assessed in retrospect, as technology continues to outpace even some at times difficult-to-grasp projections.
In Oxygen's June 1997 release they claimed to be able to exceed a
terabit, eventually, on "certain routes."
At the time, this appeared to be a bit sensational, given the unique physical
transmission hurdles on transoceanic (and other extremely long-haul)
routes. Transoceanics introduce enormously challenging powering
requirements for subsea optical amplifiers andrepeaters, which
has the result of limiting the number of strands that can be supported per
route or individual cable placement. Hence, the lower overall carrying
capacity of the cable.
[Perhaps advanced fuel cell technologies will come to the rescue during
the laying of future spans. Anyone care to comment on that thought?]
From: oxygen.org
"... envisioned to increase to more than 1 terabit (1 trillion bits) per
second on certain routes.
In this year's May 1999 release, while they are still seeking solutions to
their funding needs, they modified their projections as follows:
"The full first phase, comprising 168,000 kilometers of optical fiber
cable connecting 75 countries and locations, and with a cable capacity of
up to 2,560 Gbit/s on undersea segments, is scheduled for completion by
August 2003. Phase 1A1, with landing points in North and South
America, the Caribbean, North Africa, and Europe, will be in full
operation by June 2001."
They've upped their capacity throughput ante some 250%, despite the
fact that they've not passed their first bit yet. Hmm.. Contrast: Global
Crossings. What are the differences between these two models, and
could those be responsible for the apparent difference in their fortunes?
For one, GBLX is a sovereign company, a carrier. On the other hand,
Oxygen hopes to be a consortium. Oxygen's visions have always seemed
to me to be based on altruisms. Whereas, GBLX's is derived straight
from Wall Street Smarts, and not just a tad of Sun Tzu.
Yesterday's story in ZD highlights some of O2's current situation. I've
copied it below for posterity.
zdnet.com
Does anyone here see any similarities between this venture and those of
Iridium or Teledesic? Comments welcome.
Regards, Frank Coluccio
===================from the above ZD url:
Oxygen's Bailout Still Pending
By Denise Culver, Inter@ctive Week
November 10, 1999 4:25 PM PT
URL:
After more than a year of trying unsuccessfully to line up the money for
its planned global undersea fiber-optic network, it's easy to see why
executives at Project Oxygen may be falling prey to the chicken-and-egg
syndrome.
For months, Project Oxygen has claimed it has promises for billions of
dollars in financing from prospective telecom partners if it could only
secure financing from a major strategic investor. On Oct. 25, Project
Oxygen announced that it had that funding in place - a $250 million
investment from a pair of Israeli companies: Bezeq, Israel's national
carrier, and Elbit Medical Imaging.
There's one catch to that cash infusion - under the terms of the deal with
Bezeq and Elbit, Project Oxygen will only get that funding when it has
the other $1.25 billion it needs to complete the first stage of its planned
around-the-world fiber network.
The upshot is that, as in past months, the question remains whether
Project Oxygen's promised investors will put up the money needed to
propel the company from fledgling would-be into true service provider
status.
Pekka Tarjanne, vice chairman at Project Oxygen and former head of
the International
Telecommunication Union, says there is no question Project Oxygen will
complete its plans for a global fiber network. But he's much less clear
about the details of just how it's going to happen.
Much of the prospective funding that Project Oxygen is counting on is
tied to telecom carriers that have made commitments to buy capacity on
the global network. The unanswered question at this point is whether
those carriers will put up money before capacity is made available to
them.
It's a question that looms larger given the fact that Project Oxygen has
scaled back plans for the initial phase of its network build-out. Plans call
for the first stage to link Tel Aviv, Israel, to New York via points in
Europe and the U.K. The original Phase 1 plan was for a transatlantic
ring connecting Africa, Europe, North America and South America.
"We look at the globe as a whole, and we have a great vision for a global
network that will be built," Tarjanne says. "We don't have details of the
route yet, but we do have much more money than is necessary to build
the kind of network we envision."
Tarjanne downplays reports that Project Oxygen dismissed more than a
dozen employees in recent months, saying the company has added some
employees since.
"Money is not a problem," Tarjanne says. "Now that we have an
investor with telecommunications expertise in place . . . we will quickly
have a need to recruit new players to the team."
Tarjanne says he is optimistic that Project Oxygen will secure all of the
funds it needs "very quickly."
Neil Tagare, founder of Project Oxygen, was unavailable for comment. |
