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To: donald sew who wrote (75199)	11/12/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: Follies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

So what's Luc's record in calling crashes so far? at least 10 or 12 out of the last 0 crashes he has called correctly I think.

To: donald sew who wrote (75199)	11/12/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Don, i agree a crash is statistically speaking such a rare event that it is nearly impossible to call. however, the madness in some of the tech stocks is also statistically improbable...and yet it is happening. and it is precisely at times when you see a buying panic driving certain sectors and stocks to incredible levels when imo the statistical probability for a crash is higher than it normally is, as all crashes since the South Sea bubble have been preceded by such buying panics. however, there is no way of telling how far the buying panic may take us and how long it will last. for those expecting the blow-off in the NAZ to end soon, remember that the blow-off in the Nikkei lasted a whole year, and took the index much higher than anybody thought possible. with the sea of liquidity sloshing around, and the Fed likely to be accommodative in view of next years election, the same could happen here. hb