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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (10978)	11/23/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: david barr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

"Canadian Government are out and out socialists" With all due respect to the incredible contributions you have and continue to make to this thread I must say, that comment is the most pigheaded thing I have heard you say. There is a degree of socialism in the Canadian government which has as it's root in, "DoGoodism" and protectionism. To think that they are "out and out socialists" is simply false. There are certain things that we Canadians hold dear, however, it is certainly not across the board. Most industries compete head to head and US citizens and corporations own huge segments of the businesses in our country. We are protectionist with: Health Care, Banking, Airlines especially. Note, that the idea here has the intention of protecting the people of this country with a few essential services. Our government is not Socialist, now take it back. :) Dave

To: LindyBill who wrote (10978)	11/23/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>StockHawk: this post is not at you, but at the concept, that shows up a lot on this thread, of comparing returns between Gorillas and non-Gorillas here...I would regard JDSU as riskier than Q, because it is not a Gorilla. I expect an investment that is higher risk to return more, so it is no big deal to me that JDSU is doing better. << Bill, Just to clarify. I admitted on the post about JDSU and QCOM that I was cheer leading - something I almost never do. And I was not trying to draw any conclusion such as 'JDSU is better than QCOM'. That would be silly, at least based on what I presented. I did a 30 day comparison. Change the start date by a day or two and the results would change. Plus what can you tell from just 30 days. We're all long-termers here. My only point, (and it was not much of a point) is that some of the stocks we follow here have done extraordinarily well lately, and JDSU, of late, has defied gravity. I compared it to QCOM because QCOM's rise over the past month - with the split announcement and other good news - has been spectacular, and it has been heavily mentioned on this thread, and many others. Many here own QCOM and are familiar with it, so it is a natural choice of comparison. Over on the QCOM thread on one of the days when the stock was up 10% or so recently, someone made the statement that it would probably be possible to find a bulletin board stock that was up 100% that day, but which stock would we rather own? Obvious answer. You can throw a pile of crap up in the air, but it's liable to fall on your head. I am interested in QCOM, I own a good bit of QCOM (I even added 100 shares today) and I understand that it is the rare gorilla. I also own smaller portions of other stocks that are, or may have the potential to become, "gorillas, kings or prices with attitude." I promise not to make a habit of posting short them stock performance information, but I am interested when other people occasionally post information about performance of stocks I am somewhat familiar with but do not follow actively. Companies such as WIND or CTXS come to mind. I do not own them, and do not at this point know enough about them, but each time they are mentioned here I get a little more interested. Perhaps someone will be motivated to investigate JDSU a little further based on my post. It is a company that has been mentioned here before, most consider it a King and some are using the G word. The toughest part about categorizing it may be the complicated nature of its products and the way it keeps altering itself by buying up related companies. Ok, first I'm cheer leading and now I'm rambling. Let me put my dunce cap on and go stand in the corner. StockHawk

To: LindyBill who wrote (10978)	11/23/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

However, I would regard JDSU as riskier than Q, because it is not a Gorilla. These are my 2 biggest holdings (by far) and I have 2x as much Q as J, but I have don't see J as more risky than Q these days. Three things bother me about Q: W-CDMA - While Q's position on this is clear (same royalties as CDMA) it seems far less clear among those who don't want to pay the royalties (mostly the Europeans and MOT). I see the risk of a legal quagmire here, since as Dr. J has stated, legal challenges are expected. China - I hope the recent reports of a CDMA rollout in China are correct. I see a risk of their sticking (mainly) with GSM because of their reluctance to pay royalties. HDR - Looks good, but there was a statement by a Nortel exec recently that many telcos have their spectrum filled to capacity. Given the rate at which cell voice is expanding, and given the introduction of 1XRTT @ 384 kps late next year (which is plenty fast), seems to me that the telcos would be prudent to have a wait-and-see attitude re HDR. There is limited capacity here so I have trouble seeing why HDR @ $40/month is so attractive to the telcos. OTOH, I see fewer problems with JDSU these days. (I hope you listened to the ML conference call today.) Huge barriers to competitors, i.e., if you aren't already competing, you are TOAST; and J is 50% bigger than their 3 largest competitors (Ortel, SDI, E-Tek) combined, and growing 50% faster. By the way, God help JDSU if the Canadian content law ever changes! I'm not sure what you mean by this. I presume you are talking about the 20% foreign content limit in the RRSP (tax free retirement account). There is hope/talk about this being increased to 30%, but so what? JDSU is probably the last stock that would get dumped if Canadians were allowed to put more $$$ into foreign stocks. On the subject of socialist Canada, you are unfortunately 100% correct IMHO (my apologies to Rose), particularly here on the left coast. Unfortunately, we have an extreme leftist provincial government in their 6th year (or so). We used to have the best growth among the 10 provinces; now we are last. This provincial government has been running a huge deficit each year they have been in power, and ironically, we are the highest taxed jurisdiction on the continent. Sucks big time; and they don't yet see the light!

To: LindyBill who wrote (10978)	11/23/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Greg Hull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Sir Dancelot, <<StockHawk: this post is not at you, but at the concept, that shows up a lot on this thread, of comparing returns between Gorillas and non-Gorillas here. If I had other stocks than Q, JDSU would be one of them, and Gemstar would be another. However, I would regard JDSU as riskier than Q, because it is not a Gorilla. I expect an investment that is higher risk to return more, so it is no big deal to me that JDSU is doing better. My two best stocks last year were AOL and DELL, a King and a Prince. I held my breath while I held them, AOL especially, and I ran like a rabbit at the first sign of trouble. >> This is the part I have been trying to sort out the last few weeks. While what you say makes perfect sense, what has thrown me of course is the line from the RFM "The amount of wealth created by an enabling-technology tornado that creates a true gorilla dwarfs any other investment returns on the planet". This had me thinking that the biggest annual return should be from a gorilla. But JDSU and a few others that have done extremely well are not gorillas (or at least not yet). I compare other stocks to Q without adjusting for risk. I can tell I'm going to have to read the book a second time. The Gorilla Game is not about making the most amount of money (from page 16: "There are huge windfalls in high tech that will never come your way if you play the gorilla game"). Instead, "In the final analysis, we think the gorilla game is particularly appropriate approach to investing for private investors who are risk averse but who need to build wealth faster or in greater amounts than conventional alternatives support" (also p.16). My mindset at this point is that I want to reduce the overall risk of my portfolio in a way that minimizes the drag on annual return that safety would normally exact. Right now I like having a few high octane stocks in the portfolio. What I suspect is that the closer I approach my FLI, the fewer royalties and shiny pebbles I will want. The difference between me and you full GGers is our closeness to the FL. Greg

To: LindyBill who wrote (10978)	11/23/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: Thomas Tam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy wrote By the way, God help JDSU if the Canadian content law ever changes! Lindy what do you mean by this? If you are saying Canadians can not buy 100% JDSU in their retirement accounts then you are wrong. This is because this fantastic little company has a Canadian equivalent in JDU:TSE which trades as an exchangeable share on the Canadian markets. So we can be 100% JDU(JDSU) and not exceed our foreign content limits in our retirement accounts. Would love to have a QCOM exchangeable share. :) From a potential event point of view, what would happen to this stock if it were to be added to the S&P 500. Instant buy order of 10 million shares currently. If you figure the insiders own 40-45% and institutions own another 30-35%, there is not a lot of stock out there to buy and we will see QCOM like gains. Later