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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (81258)	11/28/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572544

Re: And to think, elmer thinks I'm optimistic... That was, of course, an upper boundary for the end of next year. But not particularly wild eyed. If Dresden is even moderately successful, AMD should succeed in capturing a fifth to a quarter of the year's CPU profits, with Intel gaining the lions share of the remainder and VIA picking up a little. Being much more of a pure semiconductor play (CPUs and flash), AMD is a better candidate for a high multiple than Intel (which is becoming a sort of hi-tech conglomerate). AMD will have demonstrated a far higher growth rate and has far smaller expenses. I don't see a market valuation 1/5 that of Intel's to be particularly extreme. Lots of things could happen between now and then to dampen this rosey scenario, but the trend since last August has been pointing this way. Regards, Dan

To: niceguy767 who wrote (81258)	11/28/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1572544

ng767 Thanks for the overview on AMD fundamentals. Looks like a reasonable roadmap to me particularly inasmuch as the Athlon is curently readily available as in "fait accomplis" unlike its "some-time-in-the-future" would be competitors! Before you pull the trigger you may want to do more dd on AMD and Gerry. Gerry has been know to promise the moon before and miss the mark 6 weeks later. Long term AMD followers can vouch for this (whether they are for or against the company). As for Athlon being currently available I suggest you shop @ a Circut City or CompUSA. They have the 500 and 600 CPQ's as display models only. They can't promise delivery before Xmas. CC also has no 500 or 600 systems in the regional warehouse. I see your new to SI. Don't take my word or any other posters word on facts (like the Gateway manager indicating they will announce the 750 on monday, this was news to the West Hartford manager, he may just be out of the loop). Take some time on Monday or Tuesday and check it out for your self (you can visit a CC, CompUSA or best buy) and we'll know about Gateway if its announced. I don't know if its a compac specific issue (maybe they're finally trying to not flood the holiday market) or if its AMD not being able to meet demand for no 500 or 600mhz systems. I am long again, more due to an overall shortage of chips which should help AMD and Dresden finally coming on line, versus AMD's ability to perform. From my research and past experience with AMD it seems to me they have yield problems (but that hasn't stopped my from taking a toe hold positon). Tim