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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (29705)	11/29/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 77400

Perhaps we have to agree on what core is. For me the core -out of it CSCO will be squeezed- is the where you agglutinate all traffic -concentrating it to send over a very expensive long distance (or international backbone). OK, I agree that was from a time transport was expensive. Then there is the functionality, SS7 signalling all across the core. Imagine the PSTN pyramid architecture where you have to go all the way up then descend all the way down on the other side. (Gary this is my second language and perhaps a Dr. in English would put this more elegantly than I do). Who dominate this core today -both in terms of transport systems and functionality- are telcos. (You can put fiber and even lit it, but it'll lack SS7) They have to leverage this core when the cannibalisation starts. Now picture that: you have this core TDM-based where everything is in E1 or T1 chunks and scales in chunks of 34 (or 45 Mbit/s) and 155Mbit/S. That's not good. But the telco can start building ATM from one part of the core to another getting rid of TDM. This stuff -this switched transport- is what LU, NT and ERICY can do today. Seeing that -what I called in my previous posting ATM coming from the core- CSCO would find a vacuum in the edge, where the enterprise needs platforms to support more services and costing less, plus even the mom and pop shop need a couple of E1s and T1's, Cisco buys Cerent and Monterey to be there in the edge. The wireless cannibalisation was only the catalizator. The one that triggered the whole thing up.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (29705)	11/30/1999 4:42:00 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Form COMS Thread:Cisco dominated the core, mainly because they had no competition when they began introducing their routers. Today a slew of old (LU,NT etc) and new (JNPR,FDRY,SCMR etc) companies have heralded in a new era by dropping the gauntlet in Cisco's back yard. Just recently NT lowered the price of their routers by 50% and publicly announce that they would license their source code. The new companies are introducing faster and cheaper routers that apparently put Cisco's best into the dust. Juniper Networks is one such company. Cisco will find it extremely difficult to maintain its current growth model without facing formidable opponents, hence an era of competition will begin and lower margins start manifesting themselves. This is the natural evolution of free markets, where the competition prevails. To: Stockman_77079 who wrote (36687 From: Mehrdad Arya Monday, Nov 29 1999 10:58PM ET Reply # of 36696 Message 12139139

To: The Phoenix who wrote (29705)	11/30/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Is VoIP doomed? Having agreed that voice will go wireless, what chances does VoIP -squeezing voice into the LAN-WAN interconnection- stand? Since, as we discussed, voice -one line, public service telephony- is ported to the more efficent medium, we said that fixed telco operators would be hard pressed to use thier existing wired infrastruture to serve broadband. Which means that these operators will build VoDSL platforms. At a Small/Medium enterprise, your PABX and your LAN to an Integrated Access Device. You route that to your DSLAM (this DSLAM seats at the ILEC wire center). From there on over DS-3/OC-3 over a packet network to the C.O. There the gateway gets all the packets and convert them to TDM and route them to the Class5 switch. We can call that VoIP or VoATM but that its not the Cisco melody. The problem for CSCO in the Edge is this Siara machine being bought by Redback. Compared with the battle on the edge, the battle on the core was a sunday in the park.