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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fuzzymath who wrote (30043)	12/11/1999 6:40:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

<<Yet there has to be a math to what IKEs doing--even if it's an internal math that's not in equations. I use equations, not graphs. >> I wish I could come up with a great theory, but I don't use maths or anything exotic my stuff is what is known as market conventional wisdom and experience. The inadequacy of its intellectual basis is oft repeated on my thread, the only thing I have seen that it works whereas the exotic stuff makes me prisoner of my calculations. I use plain charts and FA, I interpose my analysis on charts and find my levels, I watch a lot of action in the pits and look at other developments during a session. My thinking is based on fluidity of thoughts and I believe that it is freezing of mind that is most harmful. If markets could be traded by equations, IBM big blue should have been the best traders and IBM main computers the best timers of the market. The wicked nature of human mind is what is at work in the pits, to chart it with maths is impossible (for what I know) and those who do it find it out at their peril, the futility of the exercise. I do it the KISS way, something that works. On these pages nearing four years my daily posts are available I assure you that targets expounded have all seen the day light but it has been a simple way and it comes when one follows what market is planning to do. The problem with exotic stuff is that one tends to take the market on his side and that is a wrong strategy. Market gives you signals every level taken out is a pointer to the mode of the market, I just try to track this mode, it is not easy but market so far has been nice to me. May be it is all a fluke and lets see when bear market sets in, but I just wanted you to know the banality and very basic thinking I utilize in my market profiling. I envy those who use more bigger and grander theories, for people like me Gods have left some beauty in the ordinary thing we just try to partake a little from that little left for we commoners.. I assure you that I really know that there is not much into it and I want make this clear, many a theorists and great heroes rarely survive the time honored tests and rigors of the market trading, for me that is the only test I subject myself to every day. Once again reaffirming my modles inadequacies I remain,, your most faithfully...best regards and hoping to see your posts on this thread ..

To: fuzzymath who wrote (30043)	12/11/1999 9:05:00 AM
From: JDinBaltimore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Fuzzy, Here is something to burn some analytical neurons on. First I've learned NEVER go against these levels that IKE post. When I started following his post my trading took a 180% turn. But, when a support or resistance level is being approached, there is a "Momentum" associated with the movement. I've been trying to fine tune a mathematical indicator, that calculates strength of a move wile in a "target" range. I've looked at premium spreads between a group of calls and puts, similar to the VIX, but which calculates premium spreads between the calls and puts when the index is in the range of resistance or support. As the bid ask ticks converge on either a put or call one would think weakness is occuring as the ask price is lowered to attract buyers, and conversely to attract sellers. But the model matrix becomes more complex as options closer to the money can slide "linearly" up or down without the spread changing, or only for a few ticks in one direction or the other. As with any modeling it is hard to convey a concept. Point being if one had a indication of relative strength moving into resistance or support it would be of tremendous value. In IKE's post yesterday he indicated that "something didn't seem right" which what occured was a classic head fake ie. hit resistance back off then penetrate deeper only to sell off. Regards JD