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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7609)	12/23/1999 5:25:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<One can hope that all the bad is built into the price. Yeah, but is that really the best investment strategy? Sometimes it is.> Ok. I agree, but it seems that disk drives are not out of trouble, and the growth of other companies is real. But, can we say that the 2 basic issues which put HDD's in trouble were a move to Build to Order by Compaq, IBM and HP, and capcity outpacing need. You would think that all inventory would be well and truely gone leaving the BTO crunch a thing of the past. So, you get back to the issue of getting people to buy the higher margin products. It's not happening on the desktop, but maybe it is happening in the enterprise. It seems to me that there will some chance to develop drives based on AV which could cause some sort of product differentiation? I don't know. I still think for me I'd rather invest in a world changing company than one trying to fix such difficult problems. What do you all think of Read Rite? They seem to be pretty low, a big competitor dropped out, they have new business at Quantum, and they have a growing opportunity with SDLT. Regards, Mark

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (7609)	12/23/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 9256

Robert and all, <<My problem is that 90% of my disk drive exposure is in Seagate and its value is now dependent on Veritas whose market cap is approaching $40B. I'm beginning to think that the risk of the Veritas is outweighing the upside potential of the DD business. I'm very close to selling.>> Uh Huh. I think you've got it! But here is a conundrum for you (because, as we all know, Hal David was so very right with his lyrics in "Knowing When To Leave".) The conundrum is that word on the street is that we will have another sequentially strong quarter in Y2K-Q1. So how close is close for you? For me, quite honestly, its a matter of waiting to make it a Y2K tax event at least. And I am still saddled with decisions about "what then?" And here is another though. As we know too well there is such a thing as being too smart. A sequentially strong qtr and enough good ole "American spirit" and we could be leaving another 10 pts on the table. In my case that would make SEG a solid two bagger. Sort of a siren song eh? What to do...what to do? I know! I am going to go bake two more loaves of stollen. I am also going to take the turkey and the ham out of the freezer and start them thawing. Then I am going to cube the two loaves of french bread I bought Wednesday. They should be suitably stale by now. By the end of the day (yep, its morning of the Eve here) I will have the chestnuts boiled and the stuffing fully assembled, ready to pop into the oven tomorrow along with the aforementioned ham and turkey. But first things first. I have the crock pot chili to start for tonight's pre Christmas gathering. By early afternoon I should be elbow deep in dough and bread crumbs, and the kitchen will look like a Family Circle nightmare. It won't bother me much because I plan to open one of the quarts of peaches I brandied last year. They should be just about right, but truth is, I will likely pass on the peaches in favor of a generous sip of the juice now and then. But not too much. I can't be cross-eyed late tonight when I have to read (and act upon) various assembly instructions no matter how simple they claim to be. Nor would it be too cool to slur my words when I read "The Night Before Christmas" to the kids (2 extra in the house tonight, God son and God daughter) before we send em packing for the sugar plum dreams. Throughout it all I am going to try not to think about Seagate, or disk drives, or flash memory. Ditto tomorrow, as the din of 26 hungry merry makers would undoubtedly interfere with such deliberations. Merry Christmas and All the Best, Stitch