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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2251)	12/26/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

>What if that persists for years or decades? It cannot. As someone pointed out earlier, if a "public" company is instantly valued at 2 billion dollars regardless of profits or prospects for profits, then every company in america will simply go public, until the available supply of suckers runs out. Why take the effort to run a real business when the public markets will reward you TODAY, before you even have to do a lifetime of work? >Think outside the box for a minute. If you say New Paradigm or "synergy" i'm going to puke. >Show me the analyst or academic who has figured that one out yet What? One of the fundamental facets of a mania is that it always last longer than anyone could possibly believe. >It's either a brave new world or fool's gold. No, actually, you're witnessing the beginning of the end for unregulated capitalism in this country. When this finally ends and half the population is thrown into poverty because they invested their life savings in the "sure thing" that was Yahoo at $5000 per share, things will change. The political landscape will change.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2251)	12/26/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Dale, I cannot conceive that the internet/high tech IPO craze will last more than a year. IMO, there simply won't be enough money around to sustain it. Next year, the VCs and insiders of this year's hot IPOs (by far the biggest crop in history) will want to sell a good chunk of their shares. If you couple this with the avalanche of new IPOs being prepared for next year, and the fact that the Fed will be mopping up the liquidity it created to douse Y2K fears, it becomes pretty clear that the end of the bubble is near.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2251)	12/26/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Dale, I think its reasonable to assume a more traditional approach will begin to effect valuations when revenue growth prospects begin to slow. Currently we are in a sky is the limit phase, where growth cures all ills is applied to the question of earnings. The case for buy and hold is built on the growing use of the internet, which it is infered lead to growing revenues coupled with high operating leverage. The case for caution is predicated by the continuing changing landscape of the internet and the fact that this sector is growing increasingly dependent upon fresh capital (IPO proceeds) as compared to earnings for revenue. It's been a interesting year and Mary Meeker earned her 15mil for her proclomation last year that 1999 would be the year of the internet. Yet last weeks interview in Barron's contained some interesting comments, such as 90% of internet companies being overvalued (attributed to Gardner of Motley Fools) and Meeker statement thatQ: We called you "Queen of the 'Net" in our cover story a year ago. How do you feel about that label? A: I don't want to be the poster child for Internet stocks. I don't want to be associated with all of them. Dale I infer from the entire interview that while there will be winners in the next year, they will outnumbered by the loosers, with gains being narrower and risks being greater. 2000 won't be a repeat of 1999 that's for sure and its too bad Mad2