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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	1/6/2000 1:07:00 AM
From: SteveC	Respond to of 3736

Nice to hear from you. I hope you still have some ADM, tomorrow should be a day for it. Do you still like Cymer? Given the upcoming boom in construction, are there other companies you'd suggest deserve a closer look? I've never invested in Applied, but maybe it's time to reconsider (actually 5 months ago would have been the time to reconsider). Oh well, it was a good year for me despite my position with SFAM. Hopefully, 2000 will be a whole different story. Thanks as always for your input.

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	1/6/2000 8:50:00 AM
From: Mort	Respond to of 3736

Sam, nice to have you back. have always appreciated your inputs.

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	1/12/2000 4:18:00 PM
From: Jim Tao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

Mr. Sam, It's nice to see you post again. Today's activity on SFAM is pretty unusual, 6 time of the normal volume with price increase. I suspect that there might be something good about to happen. Do you have any feels to this?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	1/20/2000 6:02:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

During the LRCX Conf Call, Jim Bagley said they had all the Cu CMP demos and evaluations that they can handle. Even if Lam gets a major share, there should be some spill-over for SFAM. Comments anyone? I would think the LRCX, AMAT and NVLS news should really be encouraging for SFAM too. thanks Kirk out

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	2/10/2000 11:39:00 PM
From: SteveC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

"I don't intend to add to it or to sell any in the near future." God, I hope you didn't follow your own advice. The stock has only doubled since your Jan. 5 analysis. While the whole sector is on fire, is there any specific word on how SFAM is doing? I have a feeling that copper is going to be big this year and am hoping SFAM will distinguish itself in this area of the market. My Cymer was once under $10 a share and is not about $60. It's probably too much to expect this year, but I'm hoping to have the same ride back to the top (with owning a lot more shares) with SFAM. Best to all associated with SFAM -- and that includes its employees. I'm sure 1999 was a year of tremendous challenges and they must be quite pleased with how the stock has recovered.

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3508)	3/7/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Mr. Sam	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3736

My view on SFAM hasn't changed much since my Jan 5 posting. Let me just review my key points made there and add any changes to that view: "1. SFAM should outperform the semiconductor equipment sector slightly during the next year." I still agree with this summary. "2. I think that there will be a new fab building boom that really gets rolling in the second half of this year and last several years. This is the kind of fundamentals-driven stimulus that this stock needs to really get moving." I still agree. "3. There is a very good probability that the stock will more than double over the next year based on the P/S ratio increasing from its current 1.8 to 2.8-4 and the sales per share increasing from about $7 now to a run rate of $11-$13 annually with expectations of an additional 30% or so increase in sales in the following year." As predicted, the stock has doubled since that posting. I am looking for more moderate outperformance going forward from these levels. "4. When the upturn really gets going, we'll need to monitor who's getting the new orders. I suspect that SFAM will win some and lose some, but that they'll hold onto 10-20% of the polisher share. Though down from their hey-day, they should be able to very well on that kind of share. They could upside that estimate if they do extremely well with copper--but that's unlikely. The Auriga, the 776, and their derivative tools remain very good options for many high-volume customers, and SFAM should do fine--as will several of the other CMP makers." With AMAT's announcement of 500 Mirras shipped, it is clear that they are gaining additional share from SFAM. AMAT is looking very strong, though their tool is not any better from a technical point of view, in my opinion. SFAM is still a pretty good candidate for the #2 market share position long term. They'll be better with a strong merger partner, but may be OK on their own, too. "5. Their high cash level and valuation relative to potential acquirers makes them continue to be a good takeover target. When the next building boom gets going, there will likely be a flurry of such activity and SFAM may be the target of some of it." The other semi equipment stocks have also increased, so SFAM still has some "relative value" that is important for stock-currency M&A activity. They still have a lot of cash, too. The odds of NVLS buying SFAM are not as good as they used to be, though (due to AMAT's recent dominance), but in the midst of a takeover boom in this sector, which I continue to think will happen this year, it could still happen. NVLS will probably merge with someone, and SFAM is still a possibility. SFAM is, of course, a resonable target for some other big competitors, as well. For full disclosure regarding my investment, I am still holding my current position of more than 2 years. My position represents 3.8% of my portfolio, and I don't intend to add to it or to sell any in the near future. I did write covered calls (Apr 30) against about half of my shares today, to reflect my assessment that the stock is closer to fair value than it used to be and to buy myself about 10% downside protection. If the stock does get called away at $30 then I'll have a 15% gain on the part that's covered (119% annualized gain), and I'll still participate in the upside with the ~half of my shares that aren't covered. I'm including these details of my position only to educate those who are interested in how covered call positions work--not to suggest a particular position to anyone. Basically, after being very bullish, I'm now moderately bullish, and this is one way to play such a point of view. (If you view SFAM as a likely takeover target at a modest premium, then this is not the right strategy for you.) Profitable investing, Mr. Sam