Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mtnlady who wrote (15672)	1/19/2000 5:30:00 PM
From: MARK BARGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

mtnlady, re: cree's 18% growth in succesive quarters. Cree is restrained by production constraints. They are increasing yields constantly which help there production totals, but until they complete their plant expansion this fall, they can ramp up revenues only so much. They have an ever increasingly huge backlog to work off, and are taking the necessary steps to address the ramp up of production. Remember, only 2 1/2 years ago they were a $20 mil. a year company. It is my opinion that CREE is about 6 months away from the tornado. When the raio frquency and microwave transistors are added to production is when the tornado will officialluy begin, but by that time you will pay much more than $94 a share for CREE. ALL IMO Mark

To: mtnlady who wrote (15672)	1/19/2000 5:30:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Page 33 of the original version of GG says sales in a tornado are "not untypically 300% a year in the very early going, 'slowing down' to 100% over a longer period." You will note that this isn't a really precise definition. Some tornados might be more concentrated than others. FWIW, my own rule of thumb is that a minimum of 100% growth on an annualized basis is the minimum. If this is reached I would expect the quarterly percent growth changes to get serially larger for a while. Remember that a mass market is necessary for a tornado so total sales matter too. At this stage CREE doesn't have a mass market, and shows the bare minimum growth, so it's not in the tornado.

To: mtnlady who wrote (15672)	1/19/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

What is Moore's exact definition of a tornado? There is no exact definition. --Mike Buckley

To: mtnlady who wrote (15672)	1/19/2000 8:29:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Re CREE: If I may (and even if I might not! <g>)--The question that has to be asked about CREE and similar companies is not their percentage growth in sales, but the ultimate size of the market they are attacking. Gorillas are big companies selling products that have crossed into mainstream use. Is the SiC market ultimately big enough? Sales Mkt Cap Price/Sales ----- ------- ----------- CSCO 13.4 Bn 383.2 Bn 28.6 x INTC 29.4 Bn 341.2 Bn 11.6 x CREE 0.08 Bn 2.7 Bn 35.6 x There is a difference in scale here. This is why many would term CREE a shiny pebble. It's looking really good, and it might turn out to be a diamond, or gold nugget, if we bend down and pick it up. It could make some nice money. But, it won't lead to further riches if it is just sitting there in the stream and is not part of a vein running deep into the mountain. [Did somebody around here advise against overusing metaphors? Naah!] btw, There are lots of shiny pebbles around. ZICA and NSATF are two that I've ruminated over in the last few months. Is CREE like them, or like CSCO and INTC? The first two are definitely NOT gorilla material. Best, John