Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg S. who wrote (828)	1/20/2000 6:11:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10713

Let's do the last thing first. I've been warm on Japan since before my trip to Asia. I think they are in for a long come back that will outlast the US markets. In addition, as I said before, I think that by the end of the year, USD will be lower than now. So there's also a boon on the currency front. While we are on the topic of foreign markets, Australia is a good bet too, as is Thailand and Korea IF you can find a way to invest in them at local prices rather than the ADRs. Now on to the Internet stocks. GNET is my favorite stock in that camp as well, though I am not a holder. I think internet stocks (or close to that) will get hit hard this year. The reason is that the market is maturing. The internet mania started with Netscape and AOL IPOs. If memory serves me correctly, that was almost 6 years ago. A lot of the high flyers from that era have fallen to the depths of abyss. But now the time has come for the remaining ones to deliver on their promises. And in all honestly, most of them either do not have a viable business model, or are too richly valued for any business. In short, I think the era of rewarding the companies for accelerating revenue growth is gone and the market will start to apply the more conventional valuation models on them. So start comparing AMZN and the like against other retailers and compare AOL against media companies and EBAY against BID. Yes the comparison will not be quite direct, so you have to allow for factors such as market share, reach, and flexibility. But I don't think any of them can justify their valuations. When exactly will this happen? I think the recent action in AOL and AMZN says that it has already started. The only question is if it will end with a bang or a hiss. This is of course just my opinion and I have been wrong plenty of times. good luck, ST I think Stuart used to own GERN. Does anyone here know if it is worth putting some gamble money on? What's their burn rate and how much funding are they getting?