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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wolff who wrote (97076)	1/21/2000 6:20:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Wolff, your arguments are half-valid, but also half-based on false assumptions, as usual. <After all this is the whole intent of the Intel Inside campaign. "So long as it is Intel Inside who cares what is says outside" Well what you have had was many many millions of users using and saying...."I have AMD inside, no problems" This hurts the brand, and the Intel Inside brand was (is) worth a lot.> Funny, from personal recollection, most people can still identify the Pentium brand name over any of AMD's brand names. Just ask a friend of mine who kept jabbering to me, "I want a Pentium!" That, among other things, told me that despite the gains made by AMD, the Intel brand name is still strong as ever. There's no doubt that AMD has made a name for themselves, but that doesn't mean the Intel brand name is hurt. It just means Intel isn't the only game in town anymore, which is probably the point you were trying to make in the first place. <I think Intel used to be almost two generations ahead, I think they are now barely a generation ahead, and that generation is still being delayed. That huge lead that was blown by miss-exectution to task, well again I call that a flub.> You speak as if Intel should just give up, that they'll never regain the lead. From what I know on the inside regarding the abilities of Willamette and Foster, and from what I see regarding AMD's Sledgehammer, I can almost guarantee you that Intel will be ahead once again by a generation, and that AMD won't retake that lead for quite some time. <Now you have a competitor out of the blue come up with a radical battery optimized software/hardware chip to focus on laptops.> Intel has had competitors "come out of the blue" before, and Intel still has competitors "coming out of the blue" now. You think Transmeta is the only one? Rise and IDT was suppose to be some of Intel's potential competitors of 1999. They're gone now, only to be replaced by Via. What's changed? This is a maturing market, and it's becoming highly segmented. Obviously there are going to be more than one player in this game from now on. Do you think that spells the end of Intel? If not, well, you sure make it seem that way in your rants. <I say the how laptop market is at danger, people upgrade laptops like cell phones.> Show me a laptop that costs just as much as a cell phone. <If the K7 can ramp in MHZ and continue I don't see too many users wanting for more than 800 MHZ> I agree with the conclusion, that not too many people will want anything faster than 800 MHz. But I do disagree with the cause, that the K7 ramp will cause this limit in demand. That's a non-sequitur. Besides, if the limit in demand comes true, who do you think will be better positioned for it? AMD? Hah, their Athlons cost more to make, and they're being made in lower volumes to boot. Meanwhile, Intel will have five (count 'em) 0.18u fabs churning out Coppermines. And each Coppermine is very cheap to make, cheaper than anything AMD has or will have to offer in the 800 MHz space. High volumes, low cost, good brand name, equals Intel dominance. AMD better hope that demand isn't limited to just 800 MHz, that there'll be enough demand for 1 GHz and beyond. And even then, with Willamette and Foster coming sometime in the future, AMD's long-term prospects don't look as good as you make it seem. Let's face it, you've been "crying wolf" for quite a while now. You're not the first, and unfortunately you definitely won't be the last. But just like the naysayers were proven wrong in the past, I can almost guarantee you that you will be proven wrong in the future. Just watch. Tenchusatsu