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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Hull who wrote (97767)	1/28/2000 11:42:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Respond to of 186894

John - <I think you're asking a lot of interesting questions now. That's good. Have you noticed how far away we've moved from the original premise of the analyst that: "Although it's hard to tell what's happening, we think that Intel may have assumed that resolving its Coppermine problems was all that needed to happen in order to continue ramping revenues - actual demand softness did not enter into the calculation.".> Spectacular post John. PB

To: John Hull who wrote (97767)	1/28/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

John,<<< Intel's business, on the other hand is distributed: 42%Americas; 27%Europe; 31%Asia+Japan.>>> Your response to Michael is very typical of something that comes out of the Intel culture. Your response is very educated, full of meaningful data, and absolutely correct. The only problem is that for anyone without an MBA, it is very difficult to understand. The key to your answer is that the Americas (including Canada and Latin America) is only 42% of Intel's business and getting much smaller, and very quickly, based on your chart showing regional growth. <-----1999------> <-----1998----> <----1997----> Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Americas 5% 9% 2% -9% 3% 21% 1% -12% -1% 13% 2% Europe 16% 13% -15% -13% 31% 5% -5% -11% 32% 3% -24% Asia-Pac 17% 14% -5% -2% 19% 14% -1% 8% -5% 3% -12% Japan 31% -19% -5% 24% -3% -1% -1% -8% -6% -29% 9% Intel 12% 9% -5% -7% 13% 14% -1% -8% 6% 3% -8% If growth in Europe, Asia Pacific, and Japan is anything like Q4 99 going forward, there is no discrepancy between Dell's guidance for Q1'00 and Intel's for Q1'00 (and possible sellout). End of mystery. Mary

To: John Hull who wrote (97767)	1/29/2000 12:15:00 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel	Respond to of 186894

John Hull. Re: "I spent a few moments going over publicly available data" I guess you did. Thanx for a superb post. You truly advanced the discussion in an informative and civilized manner. You are an asset to this thread. Congratulations on your new position. HL

To: John Hull who wrote (97767)	1/29/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

John, I want to add my thank you for the time you spend here participating in our little worldwide gathering. It's little gems like fundamentals are not as volatile - when all is rolled into single average and your continuing attempts to keep the discussion on the real instead of the assumed that I greatly appreciate. Congratulations on your new position. What exactly does the Director of Intel Communications Fund do? You be the guy one has to come to for cash if one has a great idea? Barry

To: John Hull who wrote (97767)	1/31/2000 5:13:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Thanks for the reply, and sorry for the delay -- I've been away. Quick thoughts: [trends/congruent = too general] With the exception of Japan, the geographic growth rates are positively correlated for the eleven quarters provided. Besides, the worry isn't cyclical variation, but secular change. [consumer/corporate] It seems clear that corporate behavior has been a major factor in hardware underperformance, from Dell & Compaq to IBM. I welcome your input on expectations for consumer PC buying patterns. [incremental error margin] Errors arise from inexactness of accounting and reporting. I don't see how this applies to our necessarily inexact speculations. [fundamentals less volatile] I expect you're right; I also expect I'm right about pricing and capacity. I assume pricing is moved by marginal demand, so even a small, domestic shortfall would have an effect. [Osha] My first post was a devil's-advocate challenge. I'm glad you've taken the time to respond; I wonder whether the Socratic approach will be the only one I can expect from you. Any news on Willamette? There have been a lot of teasing just-you-wait posts by close-to-Intel posters on this thread. Cheers, -mb