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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (33947)	2/1/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

G, The trend we are seeing toward the acceleration into a digitized world, along with the terrible recession the industry has recently passed, make it highly likely IMO that the current upcycle will at least match previous upcycles in duration. Anyone is welcome to provide a counter-argument as to when the boom will end. I am optimistic for the sector in case you you not tell:-) BK

To: Gottfried who wrote (33947)	2/1/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I think people forget that there was a lot of equipment and upgrades purchased last year. This equipment has increased the production capability of fabs significantly, along with the ongoing device mask shrinks. I suspect that there is more than adequate chip supply for the short-mid term. This equipment needs to now pay for itself, fabs will want to increase the profit margins without incurring more expenses. They need time to "digest" the equipment they have recently purchased before taking on more debt, IMO. Yes, there will be strategic upgrade purchases to compliment new chip/mask designs, but I don't forsee a wholesale replacement of fab equipment in most fabs, right now they are more interested in maximizing profits/revenues with their present equipment sets. The real boom is 2-3 years away when the newer sub 0.18uM devices are the technology of choice, for now 0.18uM to 0.25uM is still leading edge for most fabs, and there is still a very nice market for 0.35uM devices/chip technology. I suspect an interim growth rest period will occur as chip surplus starts flooding the market again this summer. Just my opinion, BB

To: Gottfried who wrote (33947)	2/1/2000 1:27:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Brian, I find it surprising and worrisome that there is now general agreement about the duration of the semi equipment boom: 2-3 more years. It is not questioned on the thread or anywhere else. Haven't you heard my theory (well, I didn't originate it, it was kicked around at the last "high.") that we don't need to be cyclical any more? Semiconductors now have another huge market to sell into (network computing, broadband, wireless) that is growing so fast, and when added to the "old stuff" like computers, should smooth out any major downs. Actually, is it possible for chip sales to become non-cyclical, but equipment to still be cyclical? I can't see a downturn, just because, in 2003, for companies like LSI, Conexant, Intel, etc. Tony