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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)	2/15/2000 12:01:00 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571399

semiconeng, Intel investors have very high expectations for the company, which could make a price war somewhat dangerous. If they crash the high end of the x86 market, it might cause some career problems for the company management! Scumbria

To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)	2/15/2000 12:04:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 1571399

RE:", I think Intel will be able to maintain enough ASP to survive until Itanium and Willamette hit the market. On the other hand, with Athlon prices falling through the floor....." You seem to think that AMD shareholders think AMD is somehow going to put Intel out of business. Not too many think that. I think Intel can make another quarter or two or three but iTanium and Willy are still unknowns. I'm not sure why you think Athlon prices are falling through the floor? As long as AMD keeps raising the ladder the high end chip will garner the high ASP. Athlons current range is 600 to 850. Mikey Dell just announced a dual P3-600. This is at the bottom of the Athlon range. Perhaps his new marketing strategy is now "if I can't get Intel 850s I'll convince customers that two 600s is the equal of a Athlon"? My guess is that Intel is gonna have a whole lotta P3-600s to sell in a couple weeks and is going to sell them to e-machines and Dell at very good prices. Jim

To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)	2/15/2000 12:12:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571399

semiconeng, <Intel's ASP at the end of Q4/99 was estimated by several sources to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $230-250> Can you post a link to at least ONE of your "several" sources that say this. <Jerry Sanders himself says he needs $100-130. > Needs $100-$130 for what?

To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)	2/15/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571399

semicoeng, There are several glaring errors in your analysis. 1. Intels average ASP last quarter was in $190 range. It was up modestly from previous quarter. They shipped around 32-34M units with IABG revenues of 6.5Bn or so. 2. The IABG was the ONLY profitable group of any significance. 3. If Intel drives ASPS to $100. They will see severe declines in sales, and profits. 4. AMD with an $80 ASP had excellent profits in Q4 2000 of $0.46/share. 5. AMD will probably breakeven with ASPS of $60 or so due to SIGNIFICANT profits from flash biz. I know that you have posted that you couldn't care less what happens to the stock price due to your $0.50 cost basis. But I suspect the major funds that back intel as a core investment would dump it in a hurry in such a scenario. If your thinking is the pervasive thinking of Intels management then Intel is a great short at this price. Should be interesting to see what Intel does in next few weeks. regards, Kash

To: semiconeng who wrote (93135)	2/15/2000 12:55:00 AM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571399

I must admit that you're "right". The future certainly look bleak for intel, and rosy for AMD......... Not. SemiConEng, let's get this straight, before you start pulling to many Paulisms....there is only one P. Engel and frankly one is enough. Secondly lets gets something else clear.....if AMD weren't a threat to Intel's well being, your butt would not be over here posting. Thirdly Intel is in a world of hurt....it's recent fumblings not only helped AMD but several other legitimate and would be competitors. A window of opportunity was opened that will not be easily closed, if it can be closed at all. In other words Intel can not afford anymore snafus....and you better go tell that to the VP for Desktops before he sells someone a Celeron when they really want a PIII/800! ted