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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (8236)	2/16/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re. "That puts the start of the slump in late 2000 or early 2001." Thanks, Katherine, for your estimate of the situation. I suppose you're right that "18 months to build a fab" is an intrinsic timescale that helps determine the time between boom and bust, for orders. Probably a bust that is driven by overcapacity can't materialize faster than that. If your guess is right, "start of the slump in late 2000 or early 2001," then I would guess we would see a slump in stock prices beginning roughly in the summer or fall of 2000. The stock market always seems to lead a slump in orders. OT - does anybody know why a quote for LRCX appears at the bottom of the window for this thread? I wonder if we could ask Bob to get a quote for the SOX index, instead.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (8236)	2/16/2000 12:31:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, I am curious of your opinion of the bolded part considering your view that we will see a slump late 00/early 01. TIA BK Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT ú 166« ) Buy Price Target: $170 to $200 Raising Price Target & Estimates Market Cap: $64.2 Billion Index: S&P 500 Robert Maire - Semiconductor Capital Equipment We reiterate our Attractive and are raising our one-year price target to $200 up from $170 per share. We are also raising our estimates for FY'00 and FY'01 to $4.20 and $5.40 per share, respectively based on the visibility, strength across geographic regions, product offerings and demand driven by both additional capacity as well as new technology buys. Orders came in at $2.36B up 43% sequentially from the previous quarters $1.6B. Things are just fantastic across the board across all products and geographies. AMAT is now in the realm of being a $10B a year company as projected by the CEO, Jim Morgan not that long ago. They are far and away in a league by themselves. It would take a consolidation of the remainder of the industry to match AMAT. Business just keeps getting better. It is more than just a "flash in the pan" up cycle. It is a broad based strong wave of demand accelerated by the switch from technology related buying into the "high gear" of capacity related buying. Yet this is all happening in a "controlled" manner not characterized by the previous upcycles "out of control" feeling. AMAT's earnings announcement, coming in beyond even the most aggressive whisper numbers, is the "icing on the cake" of a very strong earnings season and further underscores the strength of the current cycle. We would expect a positive reaction in the semiconductor equipment stocks across the board as this is a reaffirmation of investors sentiments.