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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (93606)	2/16/2000 4:16:00 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1570570

AMD needs to take a realistic look at where the competition will likely be later this year and they need to come to grips with reality. Scorching speeds, world leading performance and virtually limitless capacity is a real possibility for AMD to be facing. How will AMD respond in an attempt to maintain profitability and newfound shareholder value? EP, I don't know if this FUDD or true hysteria?!!....but you forget that AMD already has scorching speeds and world leading performance that is actually in production, and by its standards, unlimited fab capacity. Nonetheless you might want to take your AMD profits now...the competition ain't going to get any less nerve wracking (assuming the above is hysteria) over the next few months and you may want to be out of it so that you don't get xanax dependent. ted

To: Elmer who wrote (93606)	2/16/2000 4:28:00 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570570

Sure, Elmer. So which of those megafabs is going to get a week off to produce the "hundreds of thousands" of Willies that are due out the door this year? Or maybe with all that excess capacity, Intel could convert one to Rambus production, so it had some on hand to shove down people's throats. Except for servers, of course, where "what the customers want" counts for something. Cheers, Dan.

To: Elmer who wrote (93606)	2/16/2000 5:01:00 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1570570

Elmer , Ref - Willamette Fab capacity. I agree with you that considering the fact that F12 is already shipping 1 million good Coppermine die every week, and if the Willamette die is only modestly bigger than Coppermine ( 1.5x), Intel should be able to ship millions of Willamette in H2 1990. The only caveat is Design Verification of Willamette, the chip sets and the mother boards. Remember the Pentium FDIV and Rambus chip set problems ! However the fact that Intel already ran the IDF presentation on Willamette is very encouraging. I expect to see customer shipments in July, and an old styled Intel launch by September, and zillions of Willamettes in Q4. If the AMD and the AMD faithful are not worried, they should be. AMD's window of opportunity caused by Coppermine delays, and micprocessor shortages, will close shut in six months.

To: Elmer who wrote (93606)	2/16/2000 8:30:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1570570

Re: ...nearly 1 million CuMines per week from 1 of it's megafabs. Albert Yu said yesterday they have 5 online as of now and a 6th coming online later this year. How will AMD respond in an attempt to maintain profitability and newfound shareholder value? Total demand for PC CPUs is growing rapidly, but not exponentially. Even at a price of zero, demand would likely not exceed 200 million units next year. If Intel expects to gain a greater price (than zero) it will have to accept lower sales. However expensive and wonderful all those FABs may be, they aren't necessary. Perhaps they should be referred to as Albatross 1, Albatross 2, etc. If AMD is shipping processors equal to or superior to Intel's, it will receive comparable ASPs (not the case now, but after 6 more months of relative performance like the last 6 months, AMD ASPs should start to approach Intel's for similar chips). The relative revenue requirements of the two companies are such that AMD can make strong profits as Intel suffers horrific losses (if ASPs are the same). If Intel is shipping processors substantially superior to any AMD can produce, AMD would idle on at a breakeven pace - since they can make money at $80 ASPs - and IBM, Compaq, Gateway, etc. can be expected to do what it takes to maintain an alternative to Intel, having learned some painful lessons. Intel really can't let its ASP get much below $200 (or EPS will collapse), whereas AMD doesn't need a lot more than $80 (for increasing EPS). I expect AMD to do just fine. In similar vein, what happens if Willamette ships at 1.4GHZ, dependant on Rambus and a brand new chipset into a market populated with 1.8GHZ Thunderbirds and Mustangs? And the Thunderbirds use less expensive, more available DRAM, and also have an extensive, proven, set of available motherboards and chipsets? Dan

To: Elmer who wrote (93606)	2/16/2000 10:06:00 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1570570

Elmer re..<<<<AMD needs to take a realistic look at where the competition will likely be later this year and they need to come to grips with reality. Scorching speeds, world leading performance and virtually limitless capacity is a real possibility for AMD to be facing. How will AMD respond in an attempt to maintain profitability and newfound shareholder value? EP>>>> Elmer if anybody needs to come to grig its you. What impact will Willy have, no matter how good it is, to the consumer market. The high end expensive desktops sell no more than 5% of the market. Meanwhile Amd will dominate from Willy down to 550 mhz which is ten times the market which Willy with its expensive Rambus will run. Secondly Willy will apparently require quite a few changes in software to run the new SSE instructions which won't happen overnight. Thirdly, according to Anand's they felt the 1.5 ghz demo could very well have used exotic cooling methods, just like last yrs 1 ghz demo. But the 1.2 ghz copper demo done with air cooling could just as well been done at 1.44 ghz assuming 20% increase in speed using freon. Hardly that big of a difference to make AMD'S ENGINEERS JUMP OUT A WINDOW. Willy's just a new chip; hardly the second coming of Christ that you make it out to be. Maybe for you it is because you work there, but you need to quit hyperventilating. In the grand scheme of things Willy is just a high end chip which I won't be able to afford (because of Intel's normal pricing + rambus)and which won't run current software any faster than athlon :until new sse optimizations are used. Do you really think GTW will dump amd and try to raise their sweetspot to $3000 + just so Intel can sell Willies?. Get real. If you can really put out 0ne million good chips/fab/wk don't you think the first thing you should do is tell Barrett. He doesn't seem to have a clue. For 12 fabs thats = 624 million chips/yr. which happens to be approximately 4 times the no of chips Intel sold last yr. Are you guys complete idiots. This yr. you can't fab enough to next yr. you are going to fab 4 times as many chips as you can sell + 2 yrs from now 2 more fabs will be putting out another 104 million chips. And you think Sander's is a idiot? Your going mental. If you want to spread effective fudd here you have to be believable. This is unbelievable. Your telling so many lies your beginning to believe them.