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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fulop who wrote (8076)	2/18/2000 8:38:00 AM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Courtesy stockgenie99 on the Yahoo thread: >>Our View: CIENA's results were extremely positive and show growing traction with new customers and new products. As we have discussed over the past several weeks, we believe CIENA's new customer is Qwest, which has been looking for a second source to Nortel (NT/$123.44/BUY) for OC-192 products for the past several quarters. Qwest has been testing products from both CIENA and Lucent (LU/$53.50/BUY) and now expects to have CIENA's CoreStream installed in its network by the end of the March quarter. We believe Qwest's order (in addition to other recent CIENA contract wins) provides significantly better visibility for CIENA going forward. The increasing demand for CIENA's OC-192 product line, as well as Metro DWDM, greatly increase our confidence in management's ability to meet or exceed our estimates in 2000 and into 2001. CIENA is also showing very good expense management, and we believe increased contributions from CoreStream and other new products create the opportunity for continued margin improvements going forward. We continue to think the fundamentals driving CIENA's business are very strong. Given these extremely strong quarterly results and our bullish outlook for the optical market in 2000, we are taking our price target to $150 from $100. Our new target assumes a 75 times earnings multiple for CIENA's core long-haul DWDM business and a 60 revenue multiple for the "emerging" optical portfolio (Metro and CoreDirector). Thus we value CIENA's core business at $60 a share and the emerging optical portfolio at $90. We think this valuation continues to be conservative as CIENA's closest comp, Sycamore Networks (SCMR/$122.50/BUY), currently trades at 110 times our 2001 revenue estimate. We would continue to be aggressive buyers of CIEN shares. (J.P. Morgan has acted as lead or co-manager in an offering of securities for LU, SCMR, and NT within the past three years. A director or senior officer of J.P. Morgan is a director of LU. The analyst or research associate holds a position in LU.) First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company. All rights reserved. 888.558.2500<< messages.yahoo.com

To: James Fulop who wrote (8076)	2/18/2000 9:09:00 AM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

I believe the person from Ciena was just saying that their e-o-e systems were selling well despite the claims of "pure" networking solutions being advertised as the great disruptive new technology. That is great news and not. The "not" is if it stops, or even just slows, them developing pure optical product(s)because they do not see a market or do not want to compete with their e-o-e product. This is the conundrum - e-o-e product becomes their "legacy" system. Not a worry for right now, maybe. But if someone comes out with a pure optical solution that reduces cost to Ciena's customers, it will become a problem. Looking forward to that article.